USA: +1(669)289-8683 
Sign in
Analyze the risks of the program from the point of view of (i) Toro, (ii) the insurance company, and (iii) consumers. Explain how you would estimate a fair insurance rate. Analyze how the program influences your decision to purchase. Analyze how the program impacts the consumer’s “regret.” Choose either Toro’s or the insurance company’s perspective and discuss how you would frame your argument to achieve your desired objective. Evaluate the success of the program. Justify your answer. Explain to what biases you are susceptible in this case.
The spreadsheet is exhibit 3
9 – 1 8 5 – 0 1 7
R E V : M A R C H 7 , 1 9 9 4
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Professor David E. Bell prepared this case. HBS cases are developed solely as the basis for class discussion. Cases are not intended to serve as
endorsements, sources of primary data, or illustrations of effective or ineffective management.
Copyright © 1984 President and Fellows of Harvard College. To order copies or request permission to reproduce materials, call 1-800-545-7685,
write Harvard Business School Publishing, Boston, MA 02163, or go to http://www.hbsp.harvard.edu. No part of this publication may b
e
reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, used in a spreadsheet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical,
photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of Harvard Business School.
D A V I D E . B E L L
The Toro Company S’no Risk Program
“I really don’t see how we can repeat the program at those rates.” It was June 1984 and Dick
Pollick, director of marketing for Consumer Products, was reacting to an analysis by Susan Erdahl,
programs manager. Susan had used available historical data to perform a rough actuarial calculation
that confirmed the appropriateness of the three-fold increase in premiums asked by insurance
companies to cover a repeat of Toro’s “S’no risk” campaign.
Background
Toro had begun in 1914 by making tractor engines and later branched out into lawn mowers. In
the early 1960s they added snowthrowers. By 1984 they offered a full range of products for “outdoor
care” to both institutional and residential customers. Residential lawn care products constituted
about 40-50% of sales, with snowthrowers accounting for a further 10-15%.
Snowthrower sales were channeled through twenty-six regional distributors who supplied
snowthrowers to independent retailers, such as hardware stores and lawn and garden centers, across
the snow belt. Toro also sold directly to mass merchandisers, like Marshall Field, whose private
labels made up about 30-35% of Toro snowthrower sales. Although snowthrowers were sold
throughout the year, 60-70% of sales occurred during November, December, and January, dropping
off during the ensuing months and becoming minimal during the summer. Sales were especially
strong in a year following a severe winter, presumably because people resolved not to be “caught
again.”
The Toro product line included the newly-introduced lightweight power shovel, as well as the
more traditional single-stage and two-stage models. The (smaller) single-stage machines, with
suggested retail prices of between $270 and $440, had been selling in excess of 100,000 units per year.
The self-propelled two-stage machines, ranging in price from $640 to $1,500, had been selling at
somewhat less than 20,000 units per year.
These figures were a far cry from the heady days of the late 1970s when several years of strong
growth had culminated in two years, 1978-1979 and 1979-1980, of exceptionally high sales. During
this time Toro sold approximately 800,000 single-stage and 125,000 two-stage machines. The severity
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
185-017 The Toro Company S’no Risk Program
2
of the three winters beginning in 1977/1978 created a demand that rewarded dealers for their
aggressive inventories.
The following year, 1980/1981 sales plummeted (Exhibit 1). Dealers and distributors were left
with unsold inventories that in some cases lasted them three years. Toro not only had to forego the
lost income as orders fell to a trickle but they also offered to pay some of the huge holding costs faced
by their dealers. The next two winters were equally mild, causing a sharp downturn in Toro’s
fortunes (Exhibit 3). Dealers had become disenchanted with snow removal equipment. The outlook
was bleak.
The S’no Risk Idea
In November 1982, Susan Erdahl received a phone call from an organization called Goodweather
that specialized in arranging insurance to cover weather-related business losses; they had made a
reputation insuring rock concerts. They suggested that Toro might wish to insure their snowthrower
customers against the possibility of no snow.
Dick Pollick was intrigued. A marketing survey commissioned a few years earlier, had
emphasized that a major concern of prospective buyers was that their machines might not get enough
use. Perhaps Goodweather’s proposal would be a way to “guarantee” that a snowthrower purchase
would be justified.
By January 1983 the program was set to go: under the plan, each Toro customer (with the
exception of those buying power shovels) during the summer and fall of 1983 would receive a full
refund of the suggested retail price and keep the snowthrower if the total winter snowfall was less
than 20% of its historical average. Data from 172 government-run weather stations would be posted
at each retail outlet so that a customer could read which weather station would apply and what the
relevant historical average had been. If the actual snowfall was less than 50% of average, the
customer would be refunded half the retail price. Intermediate percentages would produce a sliding
scale of reimbursements (see Exhibit 4). Customer mailing in the registration form (Exhibit 2) would
automatically be mailed a check in the event that snowfall in their are was sufficiently low.
Since Toro’s potential liabilities ran into many millions of dollars, insurance was felt to be a
necessity, and this is where Goodweather came in. They arranged a contract with American Home
Assurance Company, who agreed to meet all claims resulting from the campaign in exchange for a
premium equal to 2.1% of the retail value of snowthrowers covered.
The Program’s Success
At first distributors resisted the new promotion, which was to replace the 10% discount program
usually held in the fall. They were apprehensive about the possible administrative complexity and
the potential for customer confusion. However, they soon saw the basic simplicity and appeal of the
idea. Dealers greeted the promotion enthusiastically and, for the first time in three years, built up
inventories to back the campaign.
The accompanying advertising campaign (Exhibit 5) generated a lot of interest, indeed
excitement: dealers reported customers demanding nothing but a Toro, and buying larger models to
take a greater advantage of the deal. Soaring retail sales were aided in some areas, such as in Toro’s
home base of Minneapolis, by record-setting fall snows. Dealers sold out of the large models
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
The Toro Company S’no Risk Program 185-017
3
completely and sales of the single-stage machine were also strong. In an attempt to keep pace with
demand, Toro made an unprecedented mid-season production run of 2,500 of one of the larger
models. They were fortunate to be able to make even this number as they relied on outside suppliers
for engines. Production lead times were on the order of months rather than weeks.
Dick Pollick was overjoyed. Not only were sales up and dealers’ confidence and interest back, but
the campaign had been cheap. Although some modest administrative costs had been incurred due to
the set-up required for a new program, the S’no risk promotion had had a basic cost of 2.1% of sales
instead of the 10% normally spend on the discount program!
The Present
Despite this success, Dick was not certain that the promotion should be continued. For one thing,
the novelty might not carry over to a second year. Also, even though two weather stations had
reported snow less than 50% of average (Richmond and Roanoke, both Virginia), customers might be
less enthusiastic about the program when they learned that only a few customer had “collected” the
previous year. Moreover, since the winter of 1983/1984 had been snowy, sales in the coming fall
could be strong even without this kind of promotion. In any case, Pollick regarded the restimulation
of the trade as a major benefit of the promotion and this would not likely be reinforced by a
repetition.
And now Susan had told him that American Home was asking premiums of around 8% of sales
for the coming year. A check of other insurance companies, including Lloyd’s of London, produced
rate of between 6% and 10%. Susan’s own analysis (Exhibit 6) had convinced her that American
Home had erred in offering too low a rate for the previous year. Her calculations showed that had
S’no Risk been in force for the years 1979/1980 through 1982/1983 the actual payouts would have
been 4%, 8%, 1%, and 19% of sales respectively.
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
185-017 The Toro Company S’no Risk Program
4
Exhibit 1 Snowthrower Sales
Snowthrower Sales—Units
Product 78/79 79/80 80/81 81/82 82/83 83/84
Power Shovels — 107,213 107,896 56,981 89,114 68,141
Single-Stage 426,425 367,253 124,615 111,472 102,718 110,564
Two-Stage 53,700 73,483 17,335 19,683 18,374 31,702
Exhibit 2
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
18
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This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
185-017 The Toro Company S’no Risk Program
6
Exhibit 4 Conditions and Terms of Toro’s S’no Risk Program
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
18
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This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
18
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This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
18
5-
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7
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49
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12
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20
0
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71
14
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57
9,
10
0
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la
sg
ow
, M
T
08
9
27
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17
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17
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42
.0
30
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14
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29
4,
95
7
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14
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08
6
G
re
at
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, M
T
09
0
58
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34
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10
0.
3
45
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81
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00
13
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71
15
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86
22
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43
H
av
re
, M
T
09
1
46
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19
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26
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N
/A
38
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9,
64
3
1,
52
9
42
9
1,
57
1
4,
82
2
H
el
en
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M
T
09
2
48
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40
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16
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56
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39
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8,
68
6
10
9,
30
0
23
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57
10
3,
90
0
76
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10
K
al
is
pe
ll,
M
T
09
3
66
.7
65
.1
50
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66
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44
.7
98
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00
39
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43
12
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28
16
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43
M
ile
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C
ity
, M
T
09
4
31
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11
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6.
9
21
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29
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21
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43
1,
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9
12
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00
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06
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9
M
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T
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5
49
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54
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14
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69
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24
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65
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43
30
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71
6,
74
3
19
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43
21
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90
9,
72
2
G
ra
nd
Is
la
nd
,
N
E
09
6
30
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36
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19
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36
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40
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10
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07
1
50
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00
20
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86
46
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29
Li
nc
ol
n,
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E
09
7
28
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23
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13
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32
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38
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17
7,
71
4
74
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71
37
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57
85
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86
37
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36
N
or
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lk
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E
09
8
29
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22
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10
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47
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51
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11
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84
3
31
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29
13
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57
38
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57
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9
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66
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3.
9
25
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25
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65
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43
36
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43
19
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00
15
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14
36
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43
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m
ah
a,
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E
10
0
31
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20
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9.
1
24
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31
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1,
00
6,
71
4
50
6,
95
7
14
4,
81
4
16
4,
51
4
35
4,
87
0
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co
tts
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E
10
1
38
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78
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21
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15
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45
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55
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43
24
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14
6,
75
7
2,
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4
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37
8
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al
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E
10
2
31
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53
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16
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47
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18
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16
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43
11
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85
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7
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00
0
R
en
o,
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V
10
3
25
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22
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1
26
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23
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49
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17
26
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14
12
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71
27
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71
18
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80
C
on
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rd
, N
H
10
4
64
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27
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54
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90
.0
38
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49
1,
31
4
18
9,
98
5
11
0,
48
6
43
6,
84
3
24
5,
65
7
N
ew
ar
k,
N
J
10
6
28
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14
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19
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30
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31
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62
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28
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97
1
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08
6
8,
14
3
A
lb
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y,
N
Y
10
7
65
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27
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44
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97
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75
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1,
01
6,
00
0
40
5,
12
9
18
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24
3
43
6,
27
1
50
8,
00
0
B
in
gh
am
pt
on
, N
Y
10
8
84
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56
.8
59
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81
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81
.0
41
3,
44
3
17
0,
64
3
54
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71
53
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86
B
uf
fa
lo
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Y
10
9
92
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68
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60
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11
2.
4
52
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4,
80
3,
41
4
1,
20
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38
6
53
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22
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55
8,
44
3
La
gu
ar
di
a,
N
Y
11
2
26
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10
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16
.1
25
.6
30
.2
3,
00
2,
68
6
62
0,
87
1
57
3,
62
9
88
5,
72
9
1,
80
1,
61
2
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
18
5-
01
7
–
10
–
A
ve
ra
ge
A
ct
ua
l S
no
w
fa
ll
A
ct
ua
l S
al
es
(a
t r
et
ai
l v
al
ue
) b
ef
or
e
12
/1
0
S
‘n
o
R
is
k
R
ef
un
d
R
ep
or
tin
g
S
ta
tio
n
C
od
e
S
no
w
fa
ll
79
/8
0
80
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1
81
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2
82
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3
79
80
81
82
79
/8
0
80
/8
1
81
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2
82
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3
R
oc
he
st
er
, N
Y
11
5
89
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72
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94
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12
8.
4
59
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1,
29
6,
07
1
23
2,
34
3
17
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50
0
12
1,
14
3
S
yr
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us
e,
N
Y
11
6
11
0.
7
93
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79
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13
7.
1
66
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1,
04
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31
4
24
7,
97
1
11
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75
7
10
3,
68
6
B
is
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ar
ck
, N
D
11
9
39
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26
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11
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32
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14
5,
90
0
23
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00
17
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00
51
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29
16
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00
F
ar
go
, N
D
12
1
35
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39
.9
13
.1
69
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23
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59
9,
78
6
89
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14
59
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86
82
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71
53
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68
W
ill
is
to
n,
N
D
12
4
38
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25
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19
.1
70
.4
42
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10
1,
31
4
14
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29
12
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42
31
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71
A
kr
on
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to
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H
12
5
48
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34
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52
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61
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38
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1,
24
2,
42
9
22
1,
32
9
19
3,
45
7
25
7,
30
0
C
in
ci
nn
at
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O
H
12
7
24
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30
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14
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24
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66
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59
7,
48
6
31
2,
08
6
54
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00
22
0,
90
0
15
4,
63
0
C
le
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nd
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H
12
8
53
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38
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60
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10
0.
5
38
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2,
43
4,
44
3
66
9,
87
1
52
1,
81
4
1,
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21
4
C
ol
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s,
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H
12
9
28
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16
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30
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35
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11
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37
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50
0
25
5,
70
0
12
0,
84
2
17
6,
88
6
88
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43
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ay
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n,
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H
13
0
29
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24
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19
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42
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5.
5
2,
12
0,
22
9
58
8,
60
0
19
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37
1
30
5,
41
4
30
5,
41
4
M
an
sf
ie
ld
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H
13
2
42
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27
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43
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66
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16
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24
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28
6
75
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86
35
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86
58
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14
34
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88
T
ol
ed
o,
O
H
13
4
38
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17
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37
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68
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12
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86
1,
57
1
30
2,
57
1
21
3,
74
3
1,
37
6,
14
3
43
0,
78
6
82
5,
68
6
Y
ou
ng
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ow
n,
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H
13
5
56
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32
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49
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62
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39
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85
6,
97
1
24
3,
28
6
21
3,
48
6
12
1,
15
7
A
lle
nt
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n,
P
A
13
6
32
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21
.9
25
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43
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45
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45
1,
58
6
83
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57
43
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29
13
4,
55
7
A
vo
ca
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ar
re
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A
13
7
49
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25
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40
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59
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59
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22
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28
6
15
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60
0
67
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71
13
7,
11
4
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rie
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A
13
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55
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71
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41
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79
3,
78
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11
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32
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12
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52
9
49
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57
H
ar
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rg
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A
13
9
35
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14
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24
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36
.0
35
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76
7,
80
0
12
7,
92
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68
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57
21
6,
94
3
38
3,
90
0
P
hi
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de
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A
14
1
21
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20
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15
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25
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37
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81
8,
34
3
18
0,
88
6
93
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00
12
9,
84
3
P
itt
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ur
gh
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A
14
2
45
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24
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48
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45
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30
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6,
17
2,
60
0
94
9,
77
1
43
4,
14
3
48
4,
04
3
W
ill
ia
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or
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A
14
3
43
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20
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41
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54
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17
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97
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71
46
,8
43
18
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57
96
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57
48
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36
48
,4
79
P
ro
vi
de
nc
e,
R
I
14
4
37
.2
12
.2
21
.5
47
.4
32
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11
5,
17
1
35
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29
54
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71
22
3,
02
9
69
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03
3,
12
0
A
be
rd
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S
D
14
5
36
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28
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8.
3
N
/A
18
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21
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86
4,
45
7
1,
27
1
7,
84
3
9,
01
0
H
ur
on
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D
14
6
38
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22
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10
.4
59
.7
27
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14
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57
12
,8
71
10
,7
43
4,
81
4
3,
27
2
R
ap
id
C
ity
, S
D
14
7
38
.0
29
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16
.9
34
.8
24
.9
11
,9
00
6,
54
3
4,
74
2
5,
58
6
26
,8
30
S
io
ux
F
al
ls
, S
D
14
8
38
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29
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10
.8
42
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70
.5
98
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71
38
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29
21
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28
28
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57
S
al
t L
ak
e
C
ity
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T
15
1
58
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61
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30
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57
.8
55
.8
51
3,
82
9
38
9,
15
7
52
9
43
4,
55
7
B
ur
lin
gt
on
, V
T
15
4
77
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39
.6
64
.7
81
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80
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14
7,
57
1
44
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71
15
4,
08
6
10
0,
07
1
N
or
fo
lk
, V
A
15
6
8.
2
41
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0.
3
6.
1
3.
4
–
0
32
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00
52
9
26
5
R
ic
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on
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A
15
7
14
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38
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1.
0
21
.2
29
.4
52
8
3,
25
7
52
8
4,
92
9
3,
25
7
R
oa
no
ke
, V
A
15
8
24
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31
.8
11
.8
30
.9
35
.0
8,
15
7
3,
75
7
2,
00
0
2,
67
1
1,
87
9
S
po
ka
ne
,
W
A
15
9
51
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38
.3
14
.2
47
.4
36
.6
73
2,
21
4
36
3,
02
9
84
,0
00
16
4,
17
1
25
4,
12
0
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al
la
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al
la
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A
16
0
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27
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5.
4
13
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3.
9
16
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43
6,
77
1
–
52
9
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73
9
52
9
Y
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im
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A
16
1
24
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47
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12
.0
28
.2
21
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11
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14
17
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86
1,
61
4
10
,0
00
8,
89
3
G
re
en
B
ay
, W
I
16
3
44
.8
38
.1
30
.2
54
.0
39
.7
76
9,
17
1
19
9,
54
3
63
,5
29
11
8,
88
6
La
C
ro
ss
e,
W
I
16
4
42
.2
32
.0
21
.8
36
.1
37
.1
77
7,
10
0
22
0,
07
1
83
,7
86
18
5,
11
4
M
ad
is
on
, W
I
16
5
40
.4
31
.0
26
.5
50
.0
41
.4
2,
50
6,
14
3
40
6,
87
1
24
2,
41
4
26
2,
64
3
M
ilw
au
ke
e,
W
I
16
6
47
.0
47
.0
41
.9
67
.2
38
.1
9,
25
3,
14
3
1,
70
3,
52
9
78
6,
30
0
1,
03
5,
28
6
C
as
pe
r,
W
Y
16
8
77
.9
10
1.
2
56
.9
68
.7
15
1.
6
10
8,
08
6
47
,6
71
11
,0
00
13
,8
29
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
18
5-
01
7
–
11
–
A
ve
ra
ge
A
ct
ua
l S
no
w
fa
ll
A
ct
ua
l S
al
es
(a
t r
et
ai
l v
al
ue
) b
ef
or
e
12
/1
0
S
‘n
o
R
is
k
R
ef
un
d
R
ep
or
tin
g
S
ta
tio
n
C
od
e
S
no
w
fa
ll
79
/8
0
80
/8
1
81
/8
2
82
/8
3
79
80
81
82
79
/8
0
80
/8
1
81
/8
2
82
/8
3
C
he
ye
nn
e,
W
Y
16
9
52
.7
12
1.
5
27
.6
26
.9
10
1.
0
98
,4
43
68
,0
43
15
,0
00
16
,0
57
La
nd
er
, W
Y
17
0
10
4.
0
12
4.
4
67
.6
41
.8
16
5.
7
78
,2
14
33
,9
14
12
,9
14
14
,0
86
S
he
rid
an
, W
Y
17
2
70
.0
75
.8
46
.7
58
.9
66
.2
37
,1
00
13
,6
43
7,
20
0
14
,7
00
6,
45
7
To
ta
l S
al
es
To
ta
l R
eb
at
e
19
79
/1
98
0
13
5,
24
6,
55
1
5,
40
3,
59
2
19
80
/1
98
1
27
,3
13
,1
92
2,
15
0,
35
7
19
81
/1
98
2
21
4,
52
1,
86
6
18
0,
92
0
19
82
/1
98
3
30
,0
24
,2
17
5,
84
6,
29
9
This document is authorized for use only in AUO B6025 by Faculty of AUO from August 2011 to August 2014.
