NSCI 120 Natural Science

Using Numerical Models

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What is a  topic in science that is being studied with the help of numerical models?  The week 8 readings and videos have some examples, but there are many more.

Part 1. What sorts of data were used to create the numerical models?  What sorts of data are the model results compared to?

Part 2. Explain how the results of the numerical modeling aremight be used for practical or policy decision making.

Example:

Part 1. Short-term weather models use current observed temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind to make predictions of those same quantities at in the next few hours.   Model results can be compared to actual observations after the fact.

Part 2. Short-term weather models and the forecasts that are based on them are used by ordinary people to decide whether to leave early for work or to decide if they want to go on a picnic or choose an indoor activity for a Saturday afternoon.

(2)—ASSIGNMENT (Attached)

(3)—Relate Your Project to a Model43 messages – 34 unread

Part 1. Identify a model that relates to the topic of your Observation Project. Keep in mind that the results of any one scientific project tend to be small and specific, but models generally seek to explain a bigger picture. For example, if you counted insects attracted to your outdoor light for your project, you might look for a model that explains the visual system of moths or what impacts insect populations. You do not need to create the model.

Part 1. Include an image or photo of the model.  An image or photo from the internet is acceptable.

Part 2. Explain how it relates to the topic of your Observation Project. How does the model help to explain the results you got?

Part 3. Provide a reference for the source of your model.

Lab 5—Numerical Models
Part 1: A Simple Model
The mathematical model for pressure in a liquid is
P = Patm + ρgd
Where Patm is the atmospheric pressure, ρ is the density of the liquid, g is the acceleration of gravity, and
d is the depth in the liquid.
We are going to use a computer program with this simple model and make some predictions.
1. Go to the PhET simulation “Under Pressure”: https://phet.colorado.edu/en/simulation/underpressure
2. Push the big play arrow.
3. Start with the default settings (Fluid Density = water, Gravity = Earth, Atmosphere = On, Units =
Metric).
4. Select “Ruler” and “Grid.” Fill the tank with water (up to 0 meters).
5. Adjust the ruler to line up with the grid as shown in the image below.
Source: University of Colorado, 2022
6.
Click on the pressure gauge and drag it toward the water.
Part 1A Questions
Use the interactive model to make predictions for the following situations:
1. What is the pressure at a depth of 1 m in water? What happens to the pressure as you go
deeper?
2. How does the pressure at 1 m depth depend on the density of the liquid? (Try moving the Fluid
Density slider.)
3. Measure the pressure at the surface of the water and at 2 m depth for Mars, Earth, and Jupiter.
(Move the second slider). Make a table of your measurements. How does gravity affect the rate
at which the pressure increases with depth?
4. Turn off the atmosphere. Move the Fluid Density slider to “honey.” How does turning off the
atmosphere change the pressure at 3 m of honey on Earth?
5. Provide a screen shot of how you got answers for one of the above items.
Part 1B Discussion
Write a paragraph or two that addresses both of the following items:
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Identify a real-life situation where this model could be useful.
How, exactly, would model results inform decisions that might be made?
Example:
If I were building an aquarium, I could use this model to determine that the water pressure is highest at
the bottom of the tank. I could use the model to figure out the maximum pressure that the walls of the
tank would need to withstand. I could use the results of this model to decide which materials to use for
the aquarium and how thick they need to be.
Part 2: A Complicated Model
Global climate models are very complicated. They involve many equations (some of them are very
mathematically complex.) However, they can be used to make predictions, just like the simple pressure
model made predictions in Part 1.
Follow the instructions below to use The MONASH University Simple Climate Model:
Source: Monash University
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Go to the MONASH University Simple Climate Model website: http://mscm.dkrz.de/
Select “enter.”
Scroll down to Tutorials. Select Tutorials.
Under “Basic level,” select “Role of Processes I.”
Expand your browser screen (or zoom out) to see Experiment A frame (left side) and Experiment
B frame (right side) in one window, as shown in the image below.
6. Default settings need to be these: Map (on the tab in the middle) and Global mean (from the
drop-down menu in the lower left of the Experiment A frame).
7. To learn more about each factor (also referred to as “process” or “switch”) that contributes to
climate, select the icon to the right of each named factor in the Experiment A or Experiment B
frame. (Note that processes are also referred to as “switches” because a change in processes
can “switch” the features of climate.)
8. The animation cycles through from January to December as a default. To stop the animation,
select “Stop” on the slider in the bottom middle of the page. You can choose any month by
moving the slider.
Look carefully at the factor ice-albedo. This factor is all about sunlight that is reflected from ice, rather
than being absorbed by land or ocean water. Removing this factor simulates what would happen if the
polar ice caps melted.
Part 2A Questions
1.
2.
3.
4.
In what months are the effects of removing the ice-albedo factor the greatest?
Provide a screenshot of the month you think is most affected.
List your state (US based) or country (rest of the world) of residence.
Use the model to predict how the melting of the polar ice caps would affect the climate where
you live.
5. What social, environmental, and infrastructure challenges do you think would result from the
climate changes you identified? Describe at least three challenges.
Now look at the carbon dioxide factor. This factor represents carbon dioxide in the atmosphere that
helps hold heat in, like a blanket. Suppose all carbon dioxides were removed from the atmosphere (this
is not actually possible). Let’s look at what the consequences could be.
Part 2B Questions
1. In what months are the effects of removing carbon dioxide the greatest?
2. Provide a screenshot of the month you think is most affected.
3. Use the model to predict how the removal of carbon dioxide would affect the climate where you
live.
4. What social, environmental, and infrastructure challenges do you think would result from the
climate changes you identified? Describe at least three challenges.
5. Atmospheric carbon dioxide is increasing. If adding carbon dioxide has the opposite effect of
removing carbon dioxide, what would the effects be in your location of increasing carbon
dioxide?
Part 2C Discussion
Write at least two sentences to answer each of the following questions.
1. What did you learn from working with two different numerical models?
2. How might you use numerical models or their results in the future?
Stage 3—Observation Project
In Stage 3, you will compare your data to your hypothesis and explain why your data agree with
your hypothesis or not. Does your data support your hypothesis or reject it?
You will also explain what you learned doing this project:
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What did you learn about your topic?
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What did you learn about forming a good hypothesis that is testable using the scientific
method?
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What did you learn about data collection and describing data collection?
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What did you learn about data analysis and presentation?
You will prepare a nearly-finished/draft version of the Stage 3 report for peer review in the
Week 7 Discussion. After you receive peer reviews on your project, you will have an
opportunity to edit your project and address feedback from your classmates, from typos to
significant issues. When reading the reviewer feedback, you may choose not to make some of
the changes suggested by the reviewers. This is fine. But remember that your instructor will
also be reading the peer review feedback from your classmates.
Note:
You will only be graded on the final version that you submit to the Stage 3 folder.
The primary objective of the peer review assignment is to provide another opportunity for you
to demonstrate what you’ve learned during your Observation Project. You will demonstrate
what you learned by providing helpful information to your classmates.
Stage 3 Report
For Stage 3, you must include the material from the Stage 1 and Stage 2 reports. However,
some editing may be required to produce a single narrative that sums up your entire project. If
someone read only the final version of the project, what would you want it to look like?
Your Stage 3 report must include:
•
•
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all the items from Stages 1 and 2
a discussion of how your data support or agree with your hypothesis or if you reject
your hypothesis based on your data: Clearly state whether you accept or reject your
hypothesis in light of your data. Thoroughly explain your reasoning.
Describe your takeaway lessons from this project. Focus on what you learned about
o your observation topic,
o
o
o
o
o
forming and testing a hypothesis statement,
collecting data in a repeatable and objective manner,
data analysis,
presenting data graphically, and
interpreting data.
The Stage 3 report will typically be five to seven pages (it may be longer if you use many photos
or graphics to illustrate your topic, methods, or conclusions).
Grading Rubric—Stage 3
Item
Topic of observation project is clearly identified and described; you explain
why the topic is interesting.
Background research describes important features of the topic (features you
wish to observe and what factors might complicate your observations).
Planned observations are clearly specified. These observations can be made
in the time available with the resources available.
At least one photo (taken by you) is included. It should illustrate some aspect
of the process or phenomenon you plan to observe.
A clear hypothesis statement related to the planned observations is included.
References from background research are cited in APA format.
The observation methods are described in sufficient detail.
A photo illustrating the observations being made is included.
A table of data is included. Table includes title, column headings, and units.
A graph of data is included. Graph is of a type appropriate for the data and
includes title, axis labels, and units.
A clear statement of support or rejection of your hypothesis, with logical
reasoning for the decision, is included.
An explanation of your takeaway lessons is included.
Report is of an appropriate length.
Report is well organized and free from spelling and grammatical errors.
Report includes title page.
Total
Points
5
10
5
3
10
3
15
3
7
9
10
5
5
10
100