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• This presentation is worth 25% of the module. Your employer is a UK-based multinational enterprise (MNE) looking to invest overseas. Your employer has assigned you the task of researching your chosen global industry.
You are required to present on the structure and state of your industry, and on the macroeconomic health of one key economy. Instructions:
• Select one consumer market (GERMANY) in your chosen industry and carry out an assessment of its macroeconomic performance. AND COMPARE WWITH OTHER COUNTRIES
You should select either the largest market or the fastest growing market. It is recommended you make use of the key macroeconomic variables used in Lecture 5 Economic Performance,(GDP, UNEMPLOYMENT, DEBT,INFLATION) and make use of benchmarking and comparisons (with the other 3-4 consumer markets of the chosen industry WHICH ARE (UK, CHINA, ITALY, GREECE)
Do this for the ‘4 biggest consumer markets (cOMPETITORs) in your industry’ and for a 10 year period 2005-2015
SHOW THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE(GDP, INFLATION ,UNEMPLOYMENT, ETC,,) ON GRAPH WITH EXPLANATION OF THE GRAPH ….
THE DATA HAS TO BE TAKEN FROM THOS REFERENCES:
Yahoo! Finance Industry Centre
http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/
IMF:
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php World Bank:
http://data.worldbank.org/about/get-started
Office for National Statistics:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/
EC221: ECONOMIC
PERFORMANCE
Despina Kanellou
University of Brighton
2017-18
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
! Understand what economic variables-indicators
are important for MNEs when making investment
decisions
! Understand how to find and interpret the relevant
data
! Understand some of the limitations of looking at
certain variables
! Discuss and realise what are the implications of
Political Economy Differences for Managers
CONTENTS
1. What to look for
2. GDP
3. Growth
4. Output Gap
5. Limitations
6. Inflation
7. Gini-coefficient
8. Debt
9. Balance of payments
10. Considerations
11. Summary
12. References
13. Reading
14. Seminar work
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
Need to understand macroeconomic fundamentals to make
sound investment decisions e.g.
! Size of economy
! Income
! Potential to grow
! Distribution of income
! Cost of living
! International trade and investment
! Debt
GROSS DOMESTIC
PRODUCT
The total market value of all goods and services produced
within a country in a given period of time.
Production=expenditure=income
Expenditure approach
GDP = C+ I + G + (X – M)
Per capita
Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) can then adjust that to
factor in different costs of living
! e.g., Norway, Switzerland & Denmark – highest cost of
living – need to adjust GDP for this.
GROSS%DOMESTIC%PRODUCT%2015
0.0
0
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
Tr
ill
io
ns
GDP in 2015, national
currency, trillions
United Kingdom Japan
Germany United States
China
Source: World Bank, 201
6
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
Tr
ill
io
ns
GDP in 2015, US dollars, trillions
United Kingdom Japan Germany
United States China
GDP%PER%CAPITA%PPP%2015,
%
NATIONAL%CURRENCY
0.00
10000.00
20000.00
30000.00
40000.00
50000.00
60000.00
GDP per capita , PPP, 2015
United Kingdom Japan Germany United States China
Source: World Bank, 2016
NOMINAL VS REAL GDP
(ADJUSTED FOR INFLATION)
1,400.00
1,450.00
1,500.00
1,550.00
1,600.00
1,650.00
1,700.00
1,750.00
1,800.00
1,850.00
1,900.00
2010
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Bi
lli
on
s
UK GDP 2010-2015, constant and current £
GDP (constant LCU) GDP (current LCU)
Source: World Bank, 2016
3. GROWTH
By how much has GDP changed over time?
Usually express the percentage figure rather than levels (dollar
amounts)
Recession
GDP GROWTH % 1998-2017
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook –
October 2017
GDP GROWTH % 2011-2015
–
2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GDP growth % 2011-2015
United Kingdom Japan Germany United States China
Source: World Bank, 2016
PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH BY
COUNTRY GROUP-1990-2016
STAFF PAPER SUMMARY
Gone with the
Headwinds: Global
Productivity
Productivity growth—a key
driver of living standards—was
already in decline in advanced
economies before the global
financial crisis drove it down
sharply.
Productivity growth has slowed significantly around the world since
the 2008 global financial crisis.
It was already in decline in advanced economies before the crisis drove
it down sharply. Structural forces and demographic factors also
contributed to the trend.
This pattern has been visible in
labor productivity (output per
worker) as well as total factor
productivity, which measures the
overall efficiency of an economy’s
use of labor, capital, and elements
such as technology. If the trend
continues, it would threaten
progress in raising global living
standards, addressing private and
GROWTH DOES NOT HELP ALL
LOW INCOME DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
GROWTH AND INEQUALITY 1996-2013
The Fund now is shifting its work toward the concrete ways in which this
deeper understanding of the roots of inequality can translate into
policies that advance inclusive growth—with a focus on equitable ways
to tax and spend. Decisions in this area need to be made by country
authorities.
For the past two years, the IMF staff has worked with a group of pilot
countries spread across all regions and income groups to bring
inequality issues and policy responses into discussions during the IMF
annual health checkup with its member countries. The issues are now
featured in the reports prepared as part of the so-called Article IV
consultation process.
Growth does not help all
GINI CO-EFFICIENT
Measures inequality of income distribution in an economy
Varies from zero to one [however, sometimes reported as
0 – 100 or percentage]
Zero indicates perfect equality, with every household
earning exactly the same
One (or 100) indicates absolute inequality, with a single
household earning a country’s entire income
Pre tax, post tax, individual, family, income, consumption,
etc.
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
D
en
m
a
rk
Sl
ov
a
k
Re
p
ub
lic
Sl
ov
en
ia
N
or
w
ay
C
ze
ch
R
ep
ub
lic
Ic
el
a
nd
Fi
nl
a
nd
Be
lg
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Sw
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A
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s
G
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a
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H
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Sw
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Po
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Lu
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b
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Ir
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a
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Ko
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Fr
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e
C
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Ja
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ew
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Sp
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ia
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U
ni
te
d
S
ta
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s
Tu
rk
ey
M
ex
ic
o
C
hi
le
Gini Coefficinet, 2012 or latest year (OECD, 2016)
OECD GINI
COEFFICEINTS
THE WEALTHY ARE GETTING
WEALTHIER
ADVANCED ECONOMIES, PER CAPITA REAL MARKET INCOME 1980-20
12
The wealthy are getting wealthier
In advanced economies, the incomes of the top 1 percent have grown
three times faster than those of the rest of the population.
IMF research in this area has shown that rising inequality poses risks to
the durability of economic growth, that the design of government
policies has an impact on income distribution, and that government
also can help address the situation. An IMF paper released in January
2017 extended that research to the impact of macro-structural policies
in low-income developing countries (Figure 1.4). Other research has
focused on the implications of budget deficits, labor market
liberalization, and cross-border capital movements.
LIMITATIONS OF GDP
ANALYSIS
One dimensional: focuses on production
Silent on how the income is distributed
An imperfect perfect measure of living standards – Human
Development Index (HDI) – useful measure
http://hdr.undp.org/en/content/human-development-index-hdi
Comparing one % growth rate with another can ignore the dynamics
What is driving growth can be illuminating
INFLATION
At what rate are prices increasing?
= At what rate is the purchasing power of money being eroded?
How much inflation is too much or too little?
• Phillips Curve: inverse relationship between the rate of inflation and
changes in the rate of unemployment. Reflects a tendency for
inflation to rise when unemployment is low in the short run.
• What is the central bank target?
INFLATION
What goods do we monitor?
! Consumer Price Index (CPI)
! Producer Price Indices (PPI)
! How reliable is the data?
Inflation and monetary policy
! Interest rate increases are used to slow inflation; interest rate decreases – and low rates of interest
(0.25% Bank of England rate )– are used to stoke inflation (through effects on demand)
! Current Inflation in UK 3%
! Currency
! Lower interest rates can weaken currency, exports may rise and imports decline;
! Higher interest rates can strengthen currency, exports may decline and imports rise.
INFLATION
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CPI inflation percentage 2011-2015
United Kingdom Japan Germany United States China India
Source: World Bank, 2016
UK INFLATION AND GDP GROWTH
http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/PCPIEPCH@WEO/
ADVEC/GBR/EURO
Source: IMF Data Mapper, 2017
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
Source: IMF Data Mapper, 2017
International Labour Organisation.
Unemployed people are those without a job who have been actively
seeking work in the past 4 weeks and are available to start work in the
next 2 weeks. It also includes those who are out of work but have found a
job and are waiting to start it in the next 2 weeks.
UK EMPLOYMENT RATE
The proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 in work is known as the
employment rate. The employment rates for people, men and women
have been generally increasing since early 2012. For the latest time
period, June to August 2017, the employment rate for people was
75.1%, up from 74.5% for a year earlier.
EMPLOYABILITY AND SKILLS
12 McKinsey Global Institute Executive summary
seeking contingent work on online labor platforms.22 However, part-time employment
provides fewer hours of work per year and for some workers it remains a stopgap measure;
the share of workers in our six sample countries who are working part time involuntarily (that
is, they sought full-time employment but accepted part-time work) doubled from 3 percent
of the labor force in 1993, on average, to more than 6 percent in 2014.23
Differences in union rates and labor regulation influenced outcomes for some
income and demographic segments
National labor-market institutions and practices that shaped the outcomes in employment
and wages appear to have made a difference in some of our focus countries. For example,
the United States is known for its relatively light labor regulation and flexible labor markets
compared with most European economies. About 11 percent of private-sector workers
22 See A labor market that works: Connecting talent with opportunity in the digital age, McKinsey Global Institute,
June 2015.
23 OECD labor database.
Exhibit E4
Employment rate
%
Employment has been lower for low- and medium-skill workers, and they are more likely to be employed on
temporary contracts
FranceItaly SwedenUnited
Kingdom
Netherlands
Medium skill Low skillHigh skill
Temporary employment
Thousand people
Great Recession
Axis midpoint
SOURCE: OECD; McKinsey Global Institute analysis
9
0
80
60
70
50
40
2004 20141994
2
5
15
0
30
20
10
5
201420041994
90
80
70
50
60
40
2004 20141994
50
70
60
40
80
90
1994 2004 2014
25
30
0
15
10
5
20
2004 20141994
0
30
10
5
25
15
20
2004 20141994
Source: McKinsey 2016
DEBT
How much debt is the nation in?
Who is in debt?
! Government, corporate, consumers?
Who holds the debt
! Domestic or foreign
What currency is the debt in?
! Governments can tax/print their own currency
Can spell future austerity measures
! Tax and spending cuts
Low consumer debt levels may mean a saving culture
! Keynes’ ‘paradox of thrift’
May mean capital flight, currency crash and crisis
IMF DATAMAPPER®, PUBLIC DEBT TO GDP,
(IMF, 2015)
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
Records a nation’s trade with abroad
The BOP consists of three main accounts:
! Current Account – records sales/purchases of goods and services
! Financial Account – records flows of money in and out of financial assets: shares, bank accounts,
government bonds etc.
! Capital Account – records flows relating to sales and purchases of fixed assets (e.g. land)
These must balance, but individual accounts can be in deficit/surplus
E.g US – current account deficit balanced by surplus in capital account
The accounts have to balance but how is the interesting question
Visible and invisible
Exchange rates
CONSIDERATIONS
To what extent the government intervenes in the
economy?
How fully is the market is allowed to operate?
Transition between command and free market economies
is rarely smooth
Politics, culture and legal systems matter
! More to this than a sheet of numbers
THE RISKS OF DOING BUSINESS IN A
COUNTRY ….
are a function of
! Economic risk – the likelihood that economic
mismanagement will cause drastic changes in a
country’s business environment that adversely
affects the profit and other goals of a business
enterprise
! Political risk – the likelihood that political forces
and cultural differences will cause drastic
changes in a country’s business environment that
adversely affects the profit and other goals of a
business enterprise
! Legal risk – the likelihood that a trading partner
will opportunistically break a contract or
expropriate property rights
! it can be more costly to do business in countries with dramatically different
product, workplace, and pollution standards, or where there is poor legal
protection for property rights
HOW$CAN$MANAGERS$DETERMINE$A$
MARKET’S$OVERALL$ATTRACTIVENESS?!!!
The overall attractiveness of a country as a
potential market and/or investment site for an
international business depends on balancing the
benefits, costs, and risks associated with doing
business in that country
Other things being equal, the benefit-cost-risk
trade-off is likely to be most favorable in
politically stable developed and developing
nations that have free market systems and no
dramatic upsurge in either inflation rates or
private sector debt
CAUTION!
Crucial to understand macroeconomic performance of target markets
A small number of key variables is all you need
Anyone can pull the numbers, but not many can interpret them
Trends and comparisons
Keep up-to-date
Watch your sources
Just one variable can be misleading…is the combination of them that
will give you the tools for your analysis
REFERENCES
Hill (2013), International Business, 9e, McGrawHill
Human Development Report (2016), UNDP
IMF (2017), World Economic Outlook, IMF
IMF (2017), IMF Annual Report, IMF
McKinsey (2016), Poorer than their Parents? Flat or Falling incomes in
advanced economies, July 2016 McKinsey & Company 2016
World Bank (2013), World Development Indicators, World Bank
SEMINAR WORK
1. Collect the following data for a country of your choice
! GDP, unemployment, inflation, debt, exports and imports
! Time series: 2007-2017
! Source: IMF World Economic Outlook or World Bank WDI
! Gini coefficient
! Latest available
! Source: World Bank
! What cautions do we need to exercise with regards to our data?
2. Study the IMF WEO July update and Infographic
! Apply the ‘risks to growth’ section of the infographic to your chosen country
! Are the risks pertinent for your chosen country?
! How about the policy actions? Are they already in place?
ASSESSMENT: THIS WEEK YOU NEED TO
CHOOSE YOUR GROUP DURING YOUR SEMINAR
SESSIONS
1. Group presentation (25%) -15 minute group presentation
Global industry analysis (Lecture 7, week starting 20/11)
Macroeconomic analyses of biggest markets (Lecture 5, TODAY)
! Submission deadline for your presentation slides is 23:59 on Saturday 13th
January 2018,
! Presentations: Week commencing 15th January
2. Group written report (25%)
1500 word report on global industry, focusing on
! Mode of entry (Lecture 8)
! Political and legal factors (Lecture 6)
! Ethics in international business (Lecture 9)
! Submission deadline is Monday 5th February 2018.
3. Individual report (50%)
! 2000 word corporate analysis from chosen industry
! Mainly based on Financial Ratios Analysis and Comparisons
! Provisional hand-in date: Monday 14th May 2018.
EC221ASSESSMENT
PART I
You must deliver a presentation containing the following:
Global industry analysis (approx. 9 minutes) Lecture 7
Individual macroeconomic analyses of chosen countries. It is recommended
you make use of the key macroeconomic variables used in Lecture 5 Economic
Performance.
! (approx. 6 minutes for 4 countries)
! Concluding remarks (1 minute)
Your presentation time is 15 minutes . You will be penalised for exceeding, or
failing to reach, your allocated time. However, plus/minus 1 minute error is
allowed.
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS
‘Rate an economy’
Analysing key macroeconomic indicators to
assess the health of an economy
GDP, unemployment, inflation, debt etc. ….
Look at this week’s lecture and at the
seminar work.
Do this for the ‘4 or 5 biggest consumer
markets (countries) in your industry’ and
for a 10 year period
WHERE TO GO?
Yahoo! Finance Industry Centre
! http://biz.yahoo.com/ic/
IMF: http://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/index.php
World Bank:
http://data.worldbank.org/about/get-started
Office for National Statistics:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/
Passport (f/k/a Global Markets Information Database
! SC ” Online Library ” A-Z Resources ” Passport
• Need to register
FT, Economist, Reuters
SCREENSHOT FROM IMF DATA
MAPPER
EC221ASSESSMENT
PART I
Select a global industry from the list at the bottom of this section ” get it
approved.
Conduct an industry analysis, similar to that shown in Lecture 5 Multinationals,
industries and strategy.
Select the biggest /or healthiest consumer market (country) in your industry and
carry out an in-depth assessment of its macroeconomic performance. You first
look at the 4 or 5 biggest consumer markets (countries) in your industry,
depending on whether there are 4 or 5 students in your group.
Pre$approved*Global%industries%(whole%industry%or%subsection%thereof)%
• • Automobiles
(
• Textiles(
• Smartphones(
• Mining(
• Oil(&(gas(
• Telecommunications(
• Aerospace(and(defence(
• Pharmaceuticals
%
%
%
Part%2%–%Group%written%report%(25%)%
• This(report(is(worth(25%(of(the(module.((
Your(employer(was(intrigued(by(your(industry(analysis(and(macroeconomic(presentation(and(wants(
to(know(more(with(the(view(of(making(an(overseas(investment.(You(are(now(assigned(the(task(of(
reporting(on(three(key(aspects(of(a(potential(overseas(investment(into(your(industry.(These(three(
aspects( are( critical( success( factors( of( international( ventures;( be( sure( to( report( accurately( from(
reliable(sources.(
Instructions:(
In(your(existing(groups,(keeping(the(same(global(industry(as(in(Part(1,(you(must(write(a(report(on(the(
three(aspects(of(an(international(investment(into(your(chosen(industry:(
• Mode(of(entry(
• Political(factors(
• Ethics(in(international(business(
(
Mode+of+entry+
What+ is+ the+ most+ appropriate+ mode+ of+ entry+ for+ an+ international+ investment+ into+ your+ chosen+
industry?+ Why+ is+ it+ the+ most+ appropriate+ mode?+ Discuss+ advantages+ and+ disadvantages.+ What+
investments+risk+will+your+employer+be+exposed+to?+
+
Political+factors+
What+political+obstacles+ lie+ in+your+way?+How+can+they+be+effectively+dealt+with?+Is+corruption+an+
issue+to+contend+with?+Might+bribes+need+to+be+paid?+Is+this+acceptable?+Are+we+at+the+bottom+of+the+
peckingDorder?+Do+we+have,+or+do+we+need,+inside+contacts?+Is+there+a+threat+of+war+or+expropriation+
of+assets+in+the+country?+
+
+
+ +
INDUSTRIES
An industry can be defined as,
! “The production of raw materials (basic materials used in
manufacturing) and of goods.
! “Businesses that produce a particular type of thing or provide a
particular service.” FT.com Lexicon
Examples of industry groupings:
! Basic industries (those not depending on other industries),
e.g. Agriculture, fishing, mining, petroleum
! Key industries: (those crucial to a country’s economy), e.g.
Gas in Russia, Financial services in the UK
! High-tech industries: (those using advanced methods and
modern equipment), e.g. 3D printing and biotech
! Infant industries: (those requiring government protection
from foreign competitors), e.g. Brazilian car industry?
! Global industries: (those which criss-cross the globe in
production and consumption), e.g. Global car industry
EC221 – Assessment Brief 2017 – 2018
Version 2: 9th September 2017
• EC221 is assessed 100% by coursework.
• Be careful when selecting your group; you will be working together for the entire year.
• Going solo or changing group later is not an option.
• Your group must be formed with students from your own seminar class.
• Groups must contain 4 or 5 members and be setup on StudentCentral.
• Your seminar tutor must approve your group and industry choice.
Part 1 – Group presentation (25%)
• This presentation is worth 25% of the module.
Your employer is a UK-based multinational enterprise (MNE) looking to invest overseas. Your
employer has assigned you the task of researching your chosen global industry. You are required to
present on the structure and state of your industry, and on the macroeconomic health of one key
economy.
Instructions:
• Form a group of 4 or 5 students get it approved and registered on StudentCentral.
• Select a global industry: either one from the list below, or your own choice get it approved.
• Conduct an industry analysis, similar to that shown in Lecture 7 Multinationals, industries and
strategy.
• Select one consumer market (country) in your chosen industry and carry out an assessment
of its macroeconomic performance. You should select either the largest market or the fastest
growing market. It is recommended you make use of the key macroeconomic variables used
in Lecture 5 Economic Performance, and make use of benchmarking and comparisons (with
the other 3-4 consumer markets of the chosen industry).
• You must deliver a presentation consisting of the following:
• Global industry analysis (approx. 9 minutes) 60% of marks;
• Individual macroeconomic analysis of your chosen country (approx. 6
minutes) 40% of marks
• Allowed presentation time is 15 minutes. You will be penalised for exceeding, or failing to
reach, your allotted time. However, plus/minus 1-minute error is allowed.
• Presentations will take place in the Central Media TV Studio in weeks commencing 15th
January and 21st January.
• You must use Microsoft PowerPoint to produce your slides.
• Submission deadline for your presentation slides is 23:59 on Saturday 13th January 2018,
after which no changes can be made to your presentation. Effectively, the clock stops on your
analysis at this point. Remember – only online submission needed, and one per group.
• Presentations are checked for plagiarism – on-slide referencing is mandatory.
• On the day, bring your presentation on a USB drive and your tutor a colour printout of your
presentation.
• Ordering of presentations will be at your tutor’s discretion.
Farah jadallah
Farah jadallah
Farah jadallah
Pre-approved Global industries (whole industry or subsection thereof)
• Automobiles
• Textiles
• Smartphones
• Mining
• Oil & gas
• Telecommunications
• Aerospace and defence
• Pharmaceuticals
Part 2 – Group written report (25%)
• This report is worth 25% of the module.
Your employer was intrigued by your industry analysis and macroeconomic presentation and wants
to know more with the view of making an overseas investment. You are now assigned the task of
reporting on three key aspects of a potential overseas investment into your industry. These three
aspects are critical success factors of international ventures; be sure to report accurately from reliable
sources.
Instructions:
In your existing groups, keeping the same global industry as in Part 1, you must write a report on the
three aspects of an international investment into your chosen industry:
• Mode of entry
• Political factors
• Ethics in international business
Mode of entry
What is the most appropriate mode of entry for an international investment into your chosen industry?
Why is it the most appropriate mode? Discuss advantages and disadvantages. What investments risk
will your employer be exposed to?
Political factors
What political obstacles lie in your way? How can they be effectively dealt with? Is corruption an issue
to contend with? Might bribes need to be paid? Is this acceptable? Are we at the bottom of the pecking-
order? Do we have, or do we need, inside contacts? Is there a threat of war or expropriation of assets
in the country?
Farah jadallah
Ethics in international business
Which, if any, of the divergent approaches to business ethics is most suitable for an investment into
your chosen industry? Why might some approaches be unethical or inappropriate? Could we adopt a
hybrid approach?
Further information
• You may find it useful to focus on your analysis on your chosen economy from the
presentation – however, this is not a requirement.
• You absolutely must justify- and back-up your arguments using credible and reliable sources.
Examples of credible and reliable sources can be found in all your EC221 lectures and on EC221
Student Central pages.
• Your word limit is 1500 words; so that’s approximately 400 words per topic, leaving a few
hundred for a brief introduction and concise conclusion.
• Use footnotes with caution, and remember that appendices are not marked.
• You can exceed the word limit by 10% – that is Business School policy – but go over 110% and
you will be penalised.
• A report submitted with 1200 words is less likely to get a high grade than one with 1500 – you
need to use every single word available to you. Equally, it is a good skill to be able to meet the
word limit (1500 words) and not push to the upper limit.
• You are required to submit your report on Student Central, on the EC221 Assignment page.
No paper copy is required. Your work will be checked for plagiarism using Turnitin before
being marked online by your tutor. Feedback will be given through Turnitin.
• Submission deadline is Monday 5th February 2018.
Part 3 – Individual report (50%)
You will hear more about Part 3 once you have completed Parts 1 and 2. In short, it is a 2000-word
individual corporate financial analysis from your chosen global industry (same industry as in Part 1
and 2).
Provisional hand-in date: Monday 14th May 2018.
