HR-FORECAST-BANK

31 SKILL BUILDER

Human Resource Forecasting Assignment

I. OBJECTIVES

A. To give you practice in forecasting an organization’s human resource needs.

B. To familiarize you with some of the factors that affect an organization’s future human
resource needs (growth, automation, turnover).

C. To familiarize you with the complexities involved in making human resource forecasts.

D. To point out that all human resource forecasting is based on assumptions and that
these assumptions are critical to the accuracy of the forecast. Incorrect assumptions
lead to erroneous forecasts.

II. TIME REQUIRED TO COMPLETE: One to two hours.

JIf. I NSTR UCTI 0 NS

You have been given the assignment of forecasting the human resource needs of the
National Bank and Trust Company which currently employs approximately 1,100 people.
The bank presently has SO branch offices located throughout the metropolitan area, each
of which employs approximately 14 individuals. The bank expects to add 38 branches
during the next three years. Branches within the bank differ considerably in size, so the
figures given represent averages.

During the past month, the bank has placed an order for 30 automated teller machines to be
placed in its old branch offices. These machines are scheduled to be in operation December 31,
one year from now. The bank has found that for each new machine purchased, one less teller is
needed, on average. A breakdown of the bank’s current staffing is shown in Table 1.

The bank has asked you to perform three human resource forecasting tasks. First, based
on the assumptions given below, you are required to determine employee turnover for the
main office, the old branches, and the new branches. Your boss would like to know this
information for each of the next three years and for each of the major personnel categories
(i.e., supervisors, teHers/clerical, and main office). Your job is to complete Table 2.

Second, your boss would like to know the number of new employees the bank will need to hire
for each major personnel category for each of the next three years. Your job is to complete Table 3.

Finally, your boss would like to know the total number of employees who will be working
for the bank as of the end of each of the next three years. Your job is to complete Table 4.

Table 1 Present Staffing

Total Employees 1,100

Number of Branches 50
SupelVlsors per Branch 4

Number of Supervisors 200

Tellers per Branch 10

Number of Tellers 500

Branch EmplOyees 700

Main Office Employees 400

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Table 2 TumOl’er

Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Old Branch SUpC?lVlsors

Old Branch Tellers

Man) OffIce

New Branch Supervisors

New Branch Te/lC?fs

Table 3 Num/7l’1′ of Employees /0 be llired

Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Old Branch Svpervlsors

Old Branch Tellers

Main Office

New Branch Supervisors

New Branch Tellers

Totals

Table 4 Year,End Employmellt

Employee Category Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Old Branch Supervisors

Old Branch Tellers
Main Office
New Branch Supervisors
New Branch Tellers
Totals

In order to complete your assignment, your boss has told you to make a number of
assumptions. They are:

A. You are making all projections in December for subsequent years ending December 31.

B. With regard to old branches, assume

I. The 50 old branches employ 4 supervisors and 10 clerical personnel/tellers each.

2. On December 31 (one year hence) 30 teller machines are placed in operation and
replace 30 tellers.

3. The bank does not terminate any employees because of the new teller machines.
Rather, as tellers quit throughout the year, 30 are not replaced.

4. Turnover is 30 percent for tellers/clerical personnel, and 20 percent for supervisors.

C. With regard to new branches, assume

1. New branches are added as [oHows: 10 in Year 1, 12 in Year 2, and 16 in Year 3.

2. Each new branch employs 14 individuals (4 supervisors and 10 tellers/clerical).

SkIU lJU/IJa 31 ~ J{wfflln Rt·SIJ,’lf(.t’ ForrccJsting AJSlgnmctJ! 109

3. New branches are added evenly throughout the year. Thus, for the purpose of
calculating turnover, on average, there are 5 new branches in Year 1 (50% x 10);
16 in Year 2 [10 in Year 1 plus 6 (50% x 12)]; and 30 in Year 3 [22 plus 8 (50%
x16)J.

4. Turnover is 30 percent for tellers/clerical personnel, and 20 percent for supervisors.

D. With regard to the main office, assume that turnover will be 10 percent per year.

110 Part ‘1 • M~t’ring Hu.man Resource Rcquirt:rlUmls