discussion and activity

This week we are learned about estimating task duration.  Of the 6 that were identified, which do you feel will provide the best estimates?  How are estimates gathered in Agile?  Could Agile teams use one of the 6 methods identified?

[Your post must be substantive and demonstrate insight gained from the course material. Postings must be in the student’s own words – do not provide quotes!]

[Your initial post should be at least 450+ wordsand in APA format (including Times New Roman with font size 12 and double spaced). Post the actual body of your paper in the discussion thread then attach a Word version of the paper for APA review]This week we learned about estimating task duration.

Activity:

Pick three estimating strategies and explain how they can be used to estimate tasks.  Which of the three do you feel is the best strategy and why?  Describe estimating strategies used in Agile.

Effective Project Management:
Traditional, Agile, Extreme, Hybrid
8th Edition
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
Presented by
(Dr. Priscilla Watts)
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
Summary of Chapter 7
➢ Using tools, templates, and processes to plan a TPM project
➢ The importance of planning
➢ Using application software packages to plan projects
➢ Planning & conducting the Joint Project Planning Session (JPPS)
➢ Building the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
➢ Estimating task duration
➢ Estimating resource requirements
➢ Estimating cost
➢ Constructing the project network diagram
➢ Writing an effective project proposal
➢ Gaining approval to launch the project
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
The Pain Curve
Pain
Good
Planning
Poor
Planning
18-36%
Time
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
The Importance of Planning
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Planning Reduces Uncertainty
Planning Increases Understanding
Planning Improves Efficiency
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
Using Software Packages to Plan a Project
➢Yes
➢ Very large projects
➢ Distributed teams
➢ Extensive use of vendors and contractors
➢No
➢ Small projects
➢ Short duration project increments
➢ Adds too much non-value-added work
➢ Frequent scope and requirements changes
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
Project Planning Tools
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Sticky notes (assorted colors)
Marking pens (assorted colors)
Plenty of whiteboard space
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
Uses for Sticky Notes
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Task ID
Unique task name
Task duration
Task labor
Resource requirements
Task manager
ES, EF, LS, and LF (calculated values)
Critical Path (calculated)
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
Uses for Marking Pens
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Define dependency
relationships
Identify the critical path
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
Uses for the Whiteboard
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Project Overview Statement
Work Breakdown Structure
Dependency Diagram
Initial Project Schedule
Final Project Schedule
Resource Schedule
Issues Log
Updated Project Schedule
Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project
How Much Time Should Planning Take?
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Very small projects
Small projects
Medium projects
Large projects
Very large projects
< ½ day < 1 day 2 days 3-4 days ??? Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The JPPS Meeting Components ➢Attendees ➢Facilities ➢Equipment ➢Agenda ➢Deliverables ➢Project Proposal Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The JPPS Attendees ➢ Facilitator ➢ Project manager ➢ Another project manager ➢ JPP consultant ➢ Technographer ➢ Core project team ➢ Client representative ➢ Resource managers ➢ Project champion ➢ Functional managers ➢ Process owner Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The JPPS Facilities & Equipment ➢Facilities ➢ Comfortable ➢ Away from interruptions (off-site or on-site) ➢ Break-out rooms? ➢Equipment ➢ Break-out group work areas (table, chairs, flip charts) ➢ Whiteboards ➢ Projection equipment Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The Complete JPPS Agenda ➢Session #1 ➢ Negotiate the COS ➢ Build the RBS ➢Session #2 ➢ Write the POS ➢Session #3 ➢ Part 1: Kick-off ➢ Part 2: Working session Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Who’s Involved in the Planning Process? ➢ Session #1 Project Manager Client ➢ Session #2 Project Manager Client Project Team (known members) ➢ Session #3 Project Manager Entire Project Team Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The JPPS Agenda – Session #3 Planning Kick-off ➢Introduction of Sponsor ➢Sponsor overview of the project and its importance to the company/division/department ➢Introduction of the client co-project manager ➢Introduction of the IT co-project manager ➢Introduction of the core project team ➢Introduction of the planning facilitation team (facilitator and technographer) Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project JPPS Agenda – Session #3 Working session ➢ Validation & prioritization of requirements ➢ Overview of the project planning approach to be taken ➢ Generation and validation of the WBS ➢ Estimate duration, labor and resource requirements ➢ Creation of the dependency diagram ➢ Discuss critical path and project completion date ➢ Analysis and schedule compression as needed ➢ Identification of project risks and mitigation plans ➢ Planning team consensus on project plan contents ➢ Adjournment Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Planning Session Activities ➢Review the POS for clarity ➢Create Work Breakdown Structure ➢Estimate task duration and resource needs ➢Construct project network diagram ➢Determine critical path ➢Revise and approve project schedule ➢Finalize resource schedule ➢Gain consensus on the project plan Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The Role of the Client in the JPPS ➢ The client or their representative must be present. ➢ Validation of requirements and POS ➢ Prioritizing requirements (MoSCoW) ➢ Generating and validating the WBS ➢ Commitment of resources from the client ➢ Agreement on the project plan ➢ Client must own the project plan ➢ Meaningful involvement by the client Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Definition of the WBS The Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) is a hierarchical description of all of the work that must be done to meet the needs of the client. Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The RBS Each activity is a further decomposition of the WBS. Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Hierarchical visualization of the WBS GOAL Function Function Subfunction Subfunction Function Macro-Level Subfunction Mid- Level Activity Micro-Level Task #1 Task #2 Task #3 . . . . Task #n Work Package Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Uses for the WBS? ➢Thought process tool ➢Architectural design tool ➢Planning tool ➢Project status reporting tool Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Generating the WBS ➢ Converting the RBS to the WBS (Figure 5.2) ➢ Team Approach ➢ Subteam Approach ➢ Top-Down Approach ➢ Team Approach ➢ Subteam Approach ➢ Bottom-Up Approach Which is best? When? Why? Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project WBS Completion Criteria ➢Status and completion are measurable ➢The activity is bounded ➢The activity has a deliverable ➢Time and cost are easily estimated ➢Activity duration is within acceptable limits ➢Work assignments are independent Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project WBS Completion Criteria – The 7th criterion ➢The client didn’t participate in building the WBS like you expected. ➢You have an uncomfortable feeling ➢Scope change is likely to be a big part of the project ➢Choose a PMLC model that accommodates frequent change Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project WBS Completion Criteria – Exceptions ➢Stopping Before Completion Criteria Are Met ➢Decomposing Beyond Completion of the Criteria ➢Short duration projects ➢High risk activities ➢Large duration variance Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project RBS is a subset of the WBS Project goal and solution Requirement 1 Function 1.1 Sub-function 1.2.1 Feature 1.2.1.1 Activity 1.2.1.1.1 Function 1.2 Sub-function 1.2.2 Feature 1.2.1.2 Feature 1.2.1.3 Activity 1.2.1.1.2 Activity 1.2.1.1.3 Task 1.2.1.1.3.1 Task 1.2.1.1.3.2 RBS WBS Requirement n Function 1.3 Function n.1 Function n.2 Function n.3 Sub-function 1.2.3 Feature 1.2.1.4 Feature n.3.1 Feature n.3.2 Activity n.3.4.1 Task 1.2.1.1.3.3 Feature n.3.3 Feature n.3.4 Activity n.3.4.2 Activity n.3.4.3 Task n.3.4.3.1 Task n.3.4.3.2 Task n.3.4.3.3 Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Approaches to Building the WBS ➢ Noun-type Approaches ➢ Physical components ➢ Functional components ➢ Verb-type Approaches ➢ Design-build-test-implement ➢ Objectives ➢ Organizational approaches ➢ Geographic ➢ Departmental ➢ Business process Which is best? When? Why? Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Graphical WBS for a House HOUSE FOUNDATION SITE Layout Grade FRAMING WALLS Excavate Erect Forms Pour Concrete FLOOR JOISTS Remove forms SUBFLOOR Hang Sheetrock STUD WALLS Install 1st Floor Install 1st Floor Install 1st Floor Install 2nd Floor Install 2nd Floor Install 2nd Floor Install Cabinets ROOFING Install Sheathing Lay Shingles Tape & Bed ELECT. FRAME ROOF Install Appliances Install Furnace UTILITIES LANDSCAPING GAS WATER Do Rough-in Work Do Rough-in Work Do Rough-in Work Get Building Inspect. Get Building Inspect. Get Building Inspect. Do Finish Work Do Finish Work Do Finish Work Paint Walls & Molding Hang Wallpaper Lay Carpet FINISH WORK Lay Tile Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Indented Outline WBS for a House 1. SITE PREPARATION 1.1. Layout 1.2. Grading 1.3. Excavation 2. FOUNDATION 2.1. Erect Forms 2.2. Pour Concrete 2.3. Remove Forms 3. FRAMING 3.1. Floor Joists 3.1.1. Install first floor joists 3.1.2. Install second floor joists 3.2. Sub-flooring 3.2.1. Install first floor sub-flooring 3.2.2. Install second floor sub-flooring 3.3. Stud Walls 3.3.1. Erect first floor stud walls 3.3.2. Erect second floor stud walls 3.4. Frame the roof Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project WBS for a Waterfall SDM SYSTEMS DEVELOPMENT PROJECT Definition State objectives Design Functional Implementation Programming Clarify request Identify interfaces Source code Establish objectives Design I/O JCL Identify key issues Spec audits/controls Confirm specs Documentation Define requirements Obtain current doc. Technical Get approval Installation Define new reqmts Choose SDM Define pgm specs Testing Prepare system flow Training Get approval Convert data Cut-over Build integration test plan Get approval Get approval Construct code Conduct unit test Construct JCL Conduct system test Finalize test plan Create test data Conduct test Conduct operations training Conduct user training Finalize plan Convert data Cut-over to production Operation Operate system Review Establish plan Review performance Audit Get approval Complete financial analysis Analyze risks Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Using WBS Templates ➢Saves planning time ➢Builds on prior experience ➢Standardizes the planning and management of projects using the templates ➢Provides a structure for collecting and using estimated/actual duration and cost data ➢Focuses process quality improvement efforts Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Typical Recurring Projects ➢Update an application with new functionality ➢Distribute a new release of a software package ➢Install a network in a field office ➢Update training materials ➢Develop new training materials Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Elapsed time (duration) versus work time (labor) Labor 10 L=D L = .75D 8 6 33% unplanned interruptions 4 2 Duration 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 MODEL ASSUMPTIONS * * Individuals work at 75 percent efficiency rate. Unplanned interruptions account for 33 percent of clock time. Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Should I Estimate Task Duration or Task Labor? ➢Estimate duration to build the schedule and determine when the project will be completed ➢Estimate labor when you have to contain expenses within a budget Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Resource Loading vs. Task Duration 1. Pick up the chair 2. Carry it to the door 3. Set the chair down 4. Open the door 5. Hold the door open with your foot as you pick up the chair 6. Carry the chair out the door 7. Set the chair in the hallway Time 1 2 3 4 # of people on the team Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Causes of Variation in Duration ➢ Varying skill levels ➢ Unexpected events ➢ Efficiency of work time ➢ Mistakes and misunderstandings ➢ Variation within the capability of the system ➢ Common cause variation Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Six Methods for Estimating Task Duration ➢Extrapolating based on similarity to other activities ➢Studying historical data ➢Seeking expert advice ➢Applying the Delphi Technique (Fig 5.9) ➢Applying the Three-point technique (Fig 5.10) ➢Applying the Wide-band Delphi technique Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The Delphi Technique Third Pass Second Pass First Pass Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project The Three-Point Method O M O: Optimistic P: Pessimistic M: Most Likely E P O + 4M + P E= 6 Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Estimates Have a Life Cycle Too range time You will be smarter tomorrow than you are today. Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Estimating Resource Requirements ➢People ➢Facilities ➢Equipment ➢Money ➢Materials Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Assigning Staff to Activities Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Resource Organizational Structure Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Estimating Cost ➢ Order of magnitude estimate ➢ Budget estimate ➢ Definitive estimate ➢ Cost Budgeting ➢ Cost Control ➢ Weekly reports ➢ Baseline versus actual Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Network-based Scheduling – Gantt Charts Design Build Test Install time Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Network-based Scheduling – Task on the Arrow Ch07 How to Plan a TPM Project Network-based Scheduling – Task on the node format Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Task Node ES ID LS EF SLACK E LF Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Diagramming Conventions Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Dependency Relationships A B A FS: When A finishes, B may start FF: When A finishes, B may finish B A SS: When A starts, B may start B A B SF: When A starts, B may finish Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Dependency Constraints ➢ Technical constraints ➢ Discretionary constraints ➢ Best practice constraints ➢ Logical constraints ➢ Unique requirements constraints ➢ Management constraints ➢ Inter-project constraints ➢ Date constraints ➢ No earlier than ➢ No later than ➢ On this date ➢ Lag variables Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Paths Through the Network • The Forward Pass – Early Schedule • Left to right (start to finish) • Determines Early Start and Early Finish • ES + duration – 1 = EF • Backward Pass – Late Schedule • Right to left (finish to start) • Determines Late Start and Late Finish • LF - duration + 1 = LS Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Forward Pass Calculations – Early Schedule Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Backward Pass Calculations – Late Schedule Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Critical Path Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Early Start to Late Finish Window Task ES Slack Duration LF Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Slack Time • Total Slack • Time that a task can be delayed without impacting the early schedule of the project. • Free Slack • Time a task can be delayed without impacting the early schedule of its successor tasks. Do Not Plan to Use Slack to Bail Out the Project! Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Building the Initial Dependency Diagram 1. Enter task name and duration into software tool 2. Print PERT Diagram 3. Cut out each task node and affix to a Sticky Note 4. Write task ID # on Post-It Note 5. Place Sticky Notes on right side of whiteboard 6. Position start node on left side of whiteboard 7. Move all tasks with no predecessor to left side and connect to start node 8. Move all tasks on the right side with predecessors on the left side to the left side and connect with single line 9. Continue until all task nodes have been moved to left side Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Schedule Compression Techniques ➢ Replace FS with SS dependencies ➢ Replace a team member with a more skilled person ➢ Add resources ➢ ➢ ➢ From non-critical path tasks to critical path tasks From other projects To where ➢ ➢ ➢ critical path tasks high-risk tasks tasks with large duration variances Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Schedule Compression Iterations Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Schedule Compression Schedule compression doesn’t come free. What is the impact on the project due to schedule compression? Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Management Reserve ➢DO NOT PAD ACTIVITY DURATION ➢A percentage (5 – 10) of total project work hours ➢The last activity in the project ➢A schedule contingency for the unexpected ➢Make it visible and manage it Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Contents of the Project Proposal ➢Executive Summary ➢Background ➢Objective ➢Overview of the approach to be taken ➢Detailed statement of work ➢Time and cost summary ➢Appendices Ch07: How to Plan a TPM Project Gaining Approval to Launch the Project ➢The cost/benefit is not in your favor ➢The risks of failure are too high ➢The total project cost exceeds available funding ➢There are other projects competing for the same resources