Probability

2

>Template – Probability

0 process improvement program (

) projects that the NEWS BOD had approved.

= Yes)

.

%.

ANSWER:

PIP

00)

Results

1

1 – 0 2

8

.00

1

2 1 1 1 7

.00)

1

1 – 0 – 0 1

7,

2.00)

1

4 – 0 1 – 0 2

25

– 0

5 1 1 1 7

1

,891.00

– 0

6 – 0 1 1 6

4

4

7,779.00)

1

7 – 0 1 1 6

18

9,

0.00

– 0

8 – 0 1 1 6

25

0.00)

1

9 1 – 0 – 0 1 75 8

1

10 1 – 0 1 5

4,5

.00

– 0

11 1 – 0 1 5

4

3,775.00)

1

12 1 – 0 1 5

6

13

,0

.00

– 0

13 1 1 1 7

15

1

14 – 0 1 – 0 2

18

1

15 – 0 1 – 0 2

16

,7

.00)

1

16 – 0 – 0 1 3

16

,5

.00)

1

1 1 1 7

7

– 0

18 1 1 – 0 4

14

5.00

1

19 – 0 1 1 6

11

.00

– 0

20 1 1 – 0 4

2

0,621.00

– 0

21 1 – 0 – 0 1

12

– 0

1 1 – 0 4

21

– 0

23 – 0 1 1 6

6

1,

4.00

– 0

24 1 – 0 1 5

1

,079.00

– 0 Quality

0 Defective Free per 1000

25 1 – 0 1 5

14

1 Speed

1 – 0 – 0 1

18

1 Costs

27 – 0 1 – 0 2 67 11

– 0

1 1 – 0 4

1

– 0

29 1 – 0 – 0 1

22

.00

1

30 – 0 1 1 6

25

– 0

31 – 0 1 1 6

12

1

32 – 0 – 0 1 3

1

– 0

33 1 1 1 7

19

– 0

34 1 1 – 0 4

11

– 0

35 – 0 1 – 0 2

7

1

36 1 – 0 – 0 1

15

– 0

37 1 – 0 – 0 1

14

– 0

38 – 0 1 1 6

18

1

39 1 – 0 – 0 1

17

– 0

40 – 0 1 1 6

15

– 0

41 1 – 0 1 5

6

1

42 – 0 1 1 6

10

– 0

43 – 0 – 0 1 3

13

– 0

44 1 – 0 – 0 1

8

1

45 1 – 0 – 0 1

9

1

46 1 1 – 0 4

17

– 0

47 1 – 0 – 0 1

11

– 0

48 – 0 1 1 6

17

1

49 – 0 – 0 1 3

7

– 0

50 1 1 – 0 4

5

1

NEWS understands the issues that they must overcome in terms of quality, speed, and controlling costs.
NEWS believes that the analysis that your team has provided in the last three Excel modules has led to successful strategic plans.
The NEWS BOD would like to understand the probability of this success before granting permission for the CEO to execute the plan.
Data has been gathered on the last Save Time On Research and Writing Hire a Pro to Write You a 100% Plagiarism-Free Paper. Get My Paper								5	PIP
The BLUE columns describe whether the PIP was initially approved as a quality, speed, or cost control project, or combination. (																																																																																																																										1
The GREEN columns describe the quality, speed, and $ results from each project. Regardless of how the PIP was initially chosen,
the positive or negative results were gathered in terms of quality, speed, and $ at the end of the project.
The RED column describes the BOD final determination of whether the PIP was successful or not; old BOD criteria were confidential. (1 = Yes)
Question 1: Using the data given below, complete Task 1. The BOD would like to know the percentage of PIP projects completed per each category, since their short-term memory
has hindered their ability to remember the percentage that began as an effort to overcome quality, speed, and cost issues.
Also, briefly discuss the PIP success rate attributable to each type of PIP effort based on the BOD’s confidential criteria shown only as success or failure	Results
	ANSWER:
Question 2: Using the data given below, complete Task 2. NEWS is very proud of their PIP initiative and has briefed the press that their success rate is greater than Save Time On Research and Writing Hire a Pro to Write You a 100% Plagiarism-Free Paper. Get My Paper	50
Is this true? Explain.
The BOD is very concerned about this next process improvement project decision. It is truly a make or break initiative for the company, and therefore a more conservative set of
success criteria has been provided. Does the new criteria change the rate of success of past PIP initiatives? Given this probability of success, what recommendation would you make to the BOD?
	Quality		Speed		Costs	Combo	Quality (Defective Free out of		10	Speed (Reduction in Days)	Project Cost over 5 Years
																																																																																												– 0				8										4		9						18	$ 18,									7														6
969					25	$ (99,9					11	Task 1: Calculate Basic Probability of each PIP
				3	3	75					14	$ (			12	46	Step 1: Determine the number of Quality, Speed, or Costs projects using the COUNTIF function.
54	$ 180,987.00	Step 2: Highlight each BLUE column and use a criterion of 1
	23			19	$ 1	41	Step 3: Divide the COUNTIF value by the total number of PIP projects (which is 50) to determine % of each.
	29	$ (	33	Step 4: Next, determine the number of combination projects using the COUNTIFS function.
1			13	$	35	48	Step 5: Again, highlight each BLUE column now in question, and use a criterion of 1; divide value by 50
8				15	$ (105,	45	Step 6: Find probability of PIP success due to quality, speed, or costs or combination using COUNTIFS and COMBO 1-7; divide value by 50
$ (358,460.00)
574				16	$	20	31	Count	PIP Percentage	PIP Success
581	$ (	42	Quality (1)
	47	$	27	67	Speed (2)
913	$ 183,020.00	Costs (3)
901	$ (189,459.00)	Q & S (4)
461	$ (4	40	44	Q & C (5)
907	$ (1		21	43	S & C (6)
			17	113	$ 279,995.00	Q, S, C (7)
8	36	$ 119,	37
117	$ 258,6	24	Task 2: Calculate Basic Probability Using new BOD Success Criteria
140	$	49	Find the probability of PIP success in Results using the COUNTIF function; divide value by 50
486	$ (29,548.00)	PIP Success (OLD) =
	22	693	$ 429,546.00
797	$	32	39	Given the criticality of this new decision, the BOD has provided conservative PIP success criteria to analyze past projects
640	$ 3	38	>	30
809	$ 127,488.00	> 15 Days Reduced
26	395	$ (452,635.00)	< $ 200,000 per 5 Years
$ (153,762.00)
28	318	$ (87,959.00)	Find probability of PIP success using COUNTIFS due to new BOD quality, speed, or costs criteria.
892	$ 114,5	34
241	$ (155,861.00)	PIP Success (NEW) =
672	$ (365,375.00)
367	$ (47,545.00)
441	$ (54,337.00)
312	$ (25,565.00)
741	$ 218,901.00
152	$ (174,572.00)
421	$ 364,862.00
664	$ (285,424.00)
394	$ 11,445.00
342	$ 381,951.00
495	$ (364,384.00)
138	$ 126,225.00
497	$ 314,030.00
600	$ (204,767.00)
70	$ (360,997.00)
328	$ 312,224.00
738	$ 395,810.00
282	$ (437,307.00)
905	$ 376,547.00
220	$ (183,168.00)