Online Exam

Risk Analysis Calculations

Please choose a known critical infrastructure (e.g., the Golden Gate Bridge, the Port of Miami, etc.,) and then go through and complete the attached Carver and Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment Spreadsheets for that chosen Critical Infrastructure.  For the Multi-Criteria Risk Assessment Spreadsheet, at least five (5) Assets/Attack Mode(s) are required. The attached instructions are self-explanatory.  Please use information found online or good faith estimates in completing the spreadsheets. 

 

CARVER_1_.xlsx 

Multi-Criterion_Workshop_1_.xlsx 

CARVER_tools_1_  
Multicriterion_documentation_1_  

Sheet1

Score

Score

%

10

100%

100

0% 0%

0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00
0% 0% $0 $0.00

Intent

Capability

Achievability

Death/Injury

Symbolic

ASSET

ATTACK MODE

THREAT

VULNERABILITY

CONSEQUENCE

TOTAL

Intent

Capability

Score

Achievability

Target Hardness

Death/Injury

Economic Loss

Environmental

National Security

Symbolic

GW Bridge

Water B device by X

100

0%

10%

5%

1%

$5,000

$500

$6,150

$30.75

$0

$0.00

DEFINITIONS

$M

Probability that a person or gorup would want to do this

Value per statistical life (VSL)

6.5

Probability that a person or group would be able to do this

Probability of successful attack assuming no security measures

Target hardness

Probability that the target cannot withstand the attack (lower = harder)

Number of deaths or injuries as a result of attack

Economic loss

Estimated dollar value of loss due to attack

Environmental

Estimated dollar value of environmental impact

National security

Estimated dollar value of impact on national security

Estimated dollar value of impact due to symbolic value of target

2

>Worksheet

:

Select Value:

Select Value:

Select Value: Select Value:

:

22

CARVER

Asset Name:

GW Bridge

Address:

City:

NYC

Time needed to replace asset, if possible

Additional CI sectors affected by loss of asset

State:

Zip:

Select

Value

County:

Owner:

Sector:

Susceptibility of asset to damage or destruction

Impact of loss of asset

Users Affected:

Economic Loss and Rebuild Cost ($):

Is the asset an “icon” representing more than a physical structure

Potential Deaths from Attack:

Ease of entry into the asset to cause its damage or destruction

Percentage of “back-up” capacity to offset the loss of this asset

SCORE

1

5

CRITICALITY ACCESSIBILITY RECOVERABILITY VULNERABILITY ESPYABILITY REDUNDANCY

Food & Agriculture

Banking & Finance

Chemical Commercial Facilities Communications Critical Manufacturing Dams Defense Industrial Base Emergency Services Energy

INTERDEPENDENCY

Government Facilities Healthcare & Public Health Information Technology National Monuments & Icons Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste Postal & Shipping

Transportation Systems

Water

Menu Items

CRITICALITY VALUE VALUE VALUE

1

00 people

1

million

1

1

2

0 people

2

million

2 10 2

Chemical

3

million

3 50 3

Commercial Facilities

4

4 100 4

Communications 5

5

million

5 250 5

Critical Manufacturing

6

million

6 500 6

Dams

7

0 million

7

7

Defense Industrial Base

8

8

8

Emergency Services

9

9

9

Energy 10

10

10

10

Government Facilities

11

Healthcare & Public Health

Information Technology

National Monuments & Icons

Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste

Postal & Shipping

ACCESSIBILITY VALUE RECOVERABILITY VALUE VULNERABILITY VALUE

Water

1

1

1

2

2

2

3

3

3

4

4

4

5

5

5

6

6

6

7

7

7

8

8

8

9

9

9

10

10

ESPYABILITY VALUE REDUNDANCY VALUE

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

6

6

7

%

7

8

8

9

9

10

10

0% 11

SECTOR

VALUE

Food & Agriculture

Less than

1

0

Less than $

10

N/A

Banking & Finance

More than

100

Less than $

25

3

More than 10,000 people

Less than $

50

4

More than 25,000 people

Less than $100 million

More than 50,000 people

Less than $

250

6

More than 100,000 people

Less than $

500

7

More than 500,000 people

Less than $

75

1000

8

More than 1 million people

Less than $1 billion

5000

9

More than 2.5 million people

Less than $25 billion

10000

More than 5 million people

Less than $50 billion

50000

11

100,000+

12

13

14

15

16

Transpostation Systems

17

18

Patrolled

Less than 1 month

Special Hardening

Perimeter Fencing

More than 1 month

Massive

Armed Security

More than 3 months

Building Purpose Unknown to Public

Unarmed Security

More than 6 months

Operations Structurally Dispersed

Access Control

More than 1 year

Concrete/Stone

Alarm System

More than 2 years

Structural Steel

Locked Area

More than 3 years

Flammable/Explosive

Open to Public

More than 4 years

Minor Metal Frame

No Control

More than 5 years

Wood Design

Irreplacable

No Security Design

Locally significant, non-government

10

0%

Locally significant, government

90%

State icon only

80%

State icon + function

70%

Regional icon only

60%

Regional icon + function

50%

National icon only

40

National icon + function

30%

World icon only

20%

World icon + function

10%

Results

Asset Name: GW Bridge
Address: 0
City: NYC
State: 0
Zip: 0
County: 0
Owner: 0
Sector: 17

6 25

9

5 10

Value 7

8

Value 5 15
Value 9

Value 8

5

Value 6

5

SCORE:

Food & Agriculture

1

Banking & Finance

0

Chemical 0
Commercial Facilities FALSE 0
Communications TRUE 1
Critical Manufacturing 0
Dams 0
Defense Industrial Base TRUE 1
Emergency Services TRUE 1
Energy FALSE 0
Government Facilities 0
Healthcare & Public Health 0
Information Technology 0
National Monuments & Icons 0
Nuclear Reactors, Materials & Waste 0
Postal & Shipping TRUE 1
Transpostation Systems FALSE 0
Water 0
INTERDEPENDENCY 5

Criticality
Users affected
Economic loss					125
Potential deaths
Total	160
Accessibility
							0.9
Recoverability
Vulnerability
				0.99
Espyability
						0.95
Redundancy
	0.7
121.60850625
				TRUE
			FALSE

Tables

CRITICALITY VALUE SCORE VALUE SCORE VALUE SCORE

1 1

1 1 N/A 1 0

2 3

2 3 10 2 1

More than 10,000 people 3 5

3 5 50 3 3

More than 25,000 people 4 10 Less than $100 million 4 10 100 4 5
More than 50,000 people 5 15

5 15 250 5 10

More than 100,000 people 6 25

6 25 500 6 15

More than 500,000 people 7 40 Less than $750 million 7 40 1000 7 25
More than 1 million people 8 75 Less than $1 billion 8 75 5000 8 40
More than 2.5 million people 9 125 Less than $25 billion 9 125 10000 9 75
More than 5 million people 10

Less than $50 billion 10 200 50000 10 125

100,000+ 11 200
ACCESSIBILITY VALUE SCORE RECOVERABILITY VALUE SCORE VULNERABILITY VALUE SCORE
Patrolled 1 0.99 Less than 1 month 1 1 Special Hardening 1 0.9
Perimeter Fencing 2

More than 1 month 2 3 Massive 2 0.9

Armed Security 3 0.9 More than 3 months 3 5 Building Purpose Unknown to Public 3 0.95
Unarmed Security 4 0.95 More than 6 months 4 10 Operations Structurally Dispersed 4 0.95
Access Control 5 0.95 More than 1 year 5 15 Concrete/Stone 5

Alarm System 6 0.9 More than 2 years 6 25 Structural Steel 6 0.96
Locked Area 7 0.98 More than 3 years 7 40

7

Open to Public 8 0.99 More than 4 years 8 75 Minor Metal Frame 8 0.98
No Control 9

More than 5 years 9 125 Wood Design 9 0.99

1 Irreplacable 10 200 No Security Design 10 0.999
ESPYABILITY VALUE SCORE REDUNDANCY VALUE SCORE
Locally significant, non-government 1 0.9

1

Locally significant, government 2 0.9 90% 2

State icon only 3

80% 3

State icon + function 4

70% 4

Regional icon only 5

60% 5 0.7

Regional icon + function 6

50% 6

National icon only 7 0.95

7

National icon + function 8

30% 8

World icon only 9 0.99 20% 9 0.9
World icon + function 10

10% 10 0.95

0% 11 1

Less than 1000 people	Less than $10 million
More than 1000 people	Less than $25 million
Less than $50 million
Less than $250 million
Less than $500 million
			200
		0.98
	0.96
Flamable/Explosive	0.97
	0.999
100%	0.001
0.5
0.92	0.6
0.925	0.65
0.93
0.935	0.75
40%	0.8
0.955	0.85
0.995