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US Voting Rights and Rules
Book Review
What is the point of Wattenberg’s work, and would you recommend it to a colleague, why or why not?
Book
Wattenberg, Martin P. (2012). Is Voting for Young People? 3rd. ed. New York: Pearson Education. ISBN-10: 0205217729; ISBN-13: 978-0205217724
Instructions:
Please write an original book review addressing the question above. The paper must be no longer than two (2) pages. A cover page and work cited or reference pages, where applicable, are not included in the total page count. The pages should be 8 1/2” x 11” in size. The paper is to be typed. You should use a 1” margin. The font is to be Times New Roman or Courier New and the type size must be 12 point. The text must be double-spaced. The paper must be submitted via the assignment bin under course material on the course menu as a Word ( or x) file. These instructions supersede any contrary guidance provided by a citation manual. The review may be submitted early. To be fair to students that submit their review timely, a penalty will be applied to late papers. If you are unable to comply with any of these instructions for any reason, please notify your instructor.
Guidance:
You are not required to use sources not already used in class. The guidance here is that you may address the question above using only the course text, assigned articles and lectures. You may, however, choose to supplement your review with credible outside sources if doing so assists you in answering the question. The guidance here is that your use of outside sources be limited to credible sources. By credible, I mean sources that are respected in academia and, therefore, have persuasive value. Examples include scholarly journals, treatises, reputable newspapers or major academic works. Be cautious using websites. Sources such as Wikipedia, while very convenient, tend to lack academic credibility because they may be changed by anyone regardless of their credentials. Always ask yourself whether your sources will likely be considered by your audience to be credible before deciding to use them.
You must provide in-text, parenthetical documentation for every source used in your paper. Do not use footnotes or endnotes in the paper. The preferred citation manual is Style Manual for Political Science, American Political Science Association. MLA Style and APA Style will also be accepted. Note that a cover page is not used with MLA Style.
Blind Retrospection
Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacks
Christopher H. Achen
Deparlment of Politics,
Princeton University
;-‘ :;t i;”’;
,r ”’ 1 ‘;’
-‘
: ‘
Larry M. Bartels
Department of Politics and
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs.
Princeton University
r ;iti’ii;i’ i ti l: J;t’ ji,ir “,)t{i Jr’ i i.,itl
Revised: 27 January 2004
Abstract
Students of democratic politics have long believed that voters punish incumbents for hard times.
Governments bear the responsibility for the economy in the modern era, so that replacing incompetent
managers with capable alternatives appears to be a well-informed, rational act. However, this vision of
a sophisticated retrospective electorate does not bear close examination. We llnd that voters regularly
punish governments for acts of God. including droughts, floods, and shark attacks. As long as
responsibility for the event itself (or more commonly, for its amelioration) can somehow be attributed
to the government in a story persuasive within the folk culture, the electorate will take out its
frustrations on the incumbents and vote for out-parties. Thus, voters in pain are not necessarily
irrational. but they are ignorant about both science and politics, and that makes them gullible when
ambitious demagogues seek to profit from their misery. Neither conventional understandings of
democratic responsiveness nor rational choice interpretations of retrospective voting survive under this
interpretation of voting behavior.
Blind Retrospection
Electoral Responses to Drought, Flu, and Shark Attacksr
And Moses stretched forth his rod over the land of Egypt, and the Lord brought an east
wind upon the land all that day. and all that night; and when it was morning. the east wind
brought the locusts. And the locusts went up over all the land of Egypt, and rested in all the
coasts of Egypt: very grievous were they; befbre them there were no such locusts as they,
neither after thern shall be such. For they covered the face of the whole earth, so that the land
was darkened;and they did eat every herb of the land, and allthe fruit of the trees which the
hail had left: and there remained not any green thing irT the trees. or in the herbs of the field,
thror-rgh all the land of Egypt.
Then Pharaoh called for Moses and Aaron in haste; and he said, I have sinned against the
Lord l orrr God. and against you.
-Exodus
10
: 13- l
6
(King James version)
When collective misfoftune strikes a society, somebody has to take the blame. For ancient Israel,
disasters were God’s punishment lbr sin-perhaps the ruler’s sin, perhaps Israel’s. Theology did not
single out the guilty pafiy, but it structured the search and set limits on what counted as a credible
explanation.
1 Earlier versions of this repoft were presented at the 2002 Annual Meeting of the Arnerican Political Science
Association and in seminars atthe Juan March Institute, the University of Michigan’s Centerfbr Political
Studies, and Princeton University’s Center for the Study of Democratic Politics. We are grateful to various
colleagues and friends for helpfLrl discussions and comments; to Jonathan Ladd for organizing data; to Helene
Wood fbr graphical assistance;to Sasha Achen, Bryan Jones, John Londregan. Arlene Saxonhouse. W. phillips
Shively, John Wilkerson, and Natasha Zharinova for pointing us to examples and references; and to John
Blydenburgh and David Mayhew fbr help with New Jersey political history. Achen also expresses his thalks to
the Center fbr the Study of Democratic Politics. Princeton University, and to the Department of Political
– Science, University of Michigan, for their financial sr-rpport of a fellowship year.
In the theology of classical Egypt, pharaohs were divine beings responsible for making the Nile
flood annually. When it failed to do so, as happened repeatedly in the famines and political disorder of
the First Intermediate Period (ca. 2200 BCE), some scholars believe that the pharaoh’s reign was
shortened, and perhaps his life as well (Bell 1971; Hassan 1994).
Through the centuries, competitors of the ruler have been well aware that disaster presents them
with an opporlunity. When disasters take on catastrophic dimensions. not just the ruler but the entire
regime can come under suspicion. Writing of the Black Death in the
14
th century, which may have
killed a third or more of the European population, Herlihy (1997.64) remarks:
The plague also discredited the leaders of society, its governors, priests, and intellectuals, and the
laws and theories supporled by them. These elites were obviously failing in their prime social
function, the def-ense of the common welfare. in the name of which they enjoyed their privileges.
During the plague years, spontaneous religious and political movements arose to threaten church
and
government.
A few of these bands agitated against the groaning inequities of medieval society.
Most were less attractive. Some, fired by conspiracy theories, targeted disliked minorities such as
beggars and Jews. Across Europe. thousands of Jews were murdered befbre the traditional spiritual
and secular authorities managed to halt the fury of the mobs (Herlihy 1997,66).
Contemporary democratic rulers have little aura of divinity about them, nor have they faced
Biblical famines or medieval plagues. Nonetheless, the citizenry continues to hold them responsible
for routine hardships and misfbrtune when election time comes. In this paper we examine electoral
responses to natural disasters that are clearly beyond the control of incumbent politicians. We find that
voters regularly punish incumbent governments for such events. as long as they can find some
psychologically appealing connection-whether plausible or not-between the disaster and the
government.
fsection on “pocketbook voting!!-v61g1s punishing the incumbents for hard economic times-
omitted herel
Shark Attacks in New Jersey, 19
16
: The voters Bite Back
On the four-day Fourth of July weekend in 1916, the beaches of New Jersey were packed with
crowds happy to escape the summer heat of nearby cities.2 On Saturday, July l, a young Ivy League
graduate from Philadelphia, Charles Vansant, was swimming jLrst beyond the breakers in four feet of
water at Beach Haven. He was attacked by a shark. Skillful lif’eguards managed to get him to shore,
but he died soon after from blood loss.
Five days later, a young Swiss bellhop named Charles Bruder, a strong swimmer like Vansant,
also ventured out past the lifelines at Spring Lake beach, some forty five miles nor-th of Beach Haven.
He, too, was attacked by a shark. Though rescued by lifeguards in a small boat, he died of his wounds
befbre reaching shore.
Nearly all of the diminished numbers of Jersey Shore swimmers stuck close to shore in the days
after the two deaths. However, no one worried about boys swimming in a creek on July
12
in the town
of Matawan, about two miles fiom open water. One was attacked and killed by a shark, as was a
young man from the town who dove in to recover the boy’s body. Downstream, another group of boys
were swimming at the same time in ignorance of the attacks. Within half an hour, one of them had his
leg mauled by a passing shark. However” he was quickly pulled liom the water. reached the local
hospital, and survived.
By this time, the mounting panic reached a crescendo. Even the distant San Francisco Chronicle
had a front-page headline on.Iuly 14: EAST COAST BEGINS wAR oN RAVtrNOUS MAN-
‘ Unles, otherwise noted, the historical renditiorr follows Fernicola (2001). the most cornplete account. See also
Capuzzo (2001).
EATERS (Fernicola 2001, 87). Steel mesh was being installed at beaches. Bounties were offered. and
sharks were killed in sizable numbers along the shore. Finally, one great white shark was hauled in
near Matawan Creek with what appeared to be human bones in its stomach. Perhaps for that reason,
the attacks stopped. ending the most serious string of shark-related fatalities in American history.
Before the attacks, no arm of government had patrolled for sharks or set up barriers against them
in New Jersey, since there had never been a recorded shark attack in the history of the state. Indeed”
prominent American scientists doubted that unprovoked shark attacks on human beings ever occurred,
certainly not as t-ar north as New Jersey.3 (Fernicola 2001, 22). The general climate of skepticism lecl
the l/ev’ York Times to place its article about the flrst attack only on page 18, headlined “Dies After
Attack by Fish”-no doubt a consolation to the New.lersey resort owners, who were anxious to avoid
publicity.4
In the aftermath of the attacks. governments, particularly the federal government, were called on
fbr help. The resorts were losing money rapidly, with a quarter million dollars in reservations
cancelled within a week. Some resorts had 75 percent vacancy rates in the midst of their high season
(Captzzo 2001. 274). Losses may have amounted to perhaps as much as $1 million for the season
altogether, a sizable sum in 1918 (Fernicola 2001 .174). Letters poured into Cor-rgressional offlces
from the affected counties, demanding federal action, though there was little any government agency
” Indeed. two scientists who were later called in to investigate the attacks. Dr. Jolrn T. Nicols. an ichthyologist
and director of the Fishes Wing of the American Museum of Natural History. and Dr. Frederick Lucas, director
of the museum. had recently coauthored with athird scientist an article arguingthat unprovoked sharks never
attack human beings.
a
Parallels to the film “Jaws” arrd its sequels are no accident. Peter Benchley. the author of the book on rvhicl.r
the film was based, is a New Jersey resident, and the film version. thor-rgh set on Long Island, New york.
inclr-rdes a reference to the l9l6 New Jersev attacks.
could do. Fernicola (2001, 70) describes the atmosphere, as the shark attacks entered popular imagery
and became a metaphor for other political crises as well:
Newspaper cartoons now poftrayed Wilson’s chances fbr reelection in November, using the shark
fin as the symbol for his potential loss. The black fin labeled “def-eat” was shown slicing through
shark-inf-ested northeast regions. Other political cartoons of the day showed lawyers, represented
by sharks heading toward a beleaguered sailboat, embossed with “Union Bank.” At the stern of
the bank boat. a chewed and legless victim dangled over the gunnel depicting “deposits.”
As it happened, the Secretary of the Treasury, William McAdoo, had a summer home in Spring
Lake and was in residence at the time of the second attack. Joseph Tumulty, Wilson’s powerful aide
fbr political affairs. had a summer home in Asbury Park, about five miles norlh of Spring Lake.
President Wilson himself, a former president of Princeton University and former governor of New
Jersey, had been looking for a summer White House in New Jersey as well, and chose a hotel in
Asbury Park, moving there shortly after the attacks ended. Thus the attacks received immediate
federal attention.
Wilson held a Cabinet meeting to discuss the attacks (Fernicola 2001, 70), but the Bureau of
Fisheries could suggest nothing beyond killing sharks at random and warning bathers. “No cefiainly
efTective preventive measure could be recommended,” they said (Capuzzo 2001, 277). The president
could only direct the Coast Guard to inspect the beaches and patrol the water. However, the problem
disappeared and autumn arrived before much could be done. By election time in November, Wilson
ll’as back at his Asbury Park headquarters, but other election issues, notably potential U.S. entry into
World War I. took over the headlines (Link \954.247 -251). In the end, Wilson lost nearly all the
northeastern and Great Lakes states, including New Jersey, but managed to squeak out his re-election
by adding most of the Great Plains. Mountain States and West to the Democrats’ customary Solid
South.
Did the shark attacks influence the presidential election in the affected areas of New Jersey?
Hitherlo, sharks have not been suspects in any electoral analysis. Nonetheless, if our argument is
correct. they should have reduced Wilson’s vote. First. the attacks were a natural disaster causing
several deaths plus considerable emotional and financial distress to entire communities. Second, the
government was thought to be responsible for dealing with the crisis, and high federal officials were
present at the scene from the beginning. Third, the election lbllowed the crisis quickly enough that the
summer’s events would have been fresh in the minds of the voters. The fact that no government has
any influence over sharks should have been irrelevant.
The evidence for a shark effect turns out to be rather strong. We now-turn to the first piece of
that evidence, using election returns at the New Jersey county level. The Wilson vote in 1916 is the
variable to be explained. Our key independent variable is “beach county,” defined as Monmouth,
Ocean, Atlantic. and Cape May counties. These were, and are, the classic “Jersey Shore” counties
listed in the guidebooks, whose beach areas are heavily dependent upon summer tourism. They are the
places in which the shark attacks would have had the most pronounced economic effects. The attacks
themselves took place in Monmouth (three deaths) and Ocean (one).
[Aseveral-pagediscussionofvariousregressionanalysesisomittedhere@
irg The main finding is:]
The estimated negative effect on Wilson’s vote in the beach counties is a little more than 3
percentage points” with a 95% confidence interval confined between 1.2 and 5.2. The shark attacks
indeed seem to have had an impact-about one-fourth the eftbct that the Great Depression had on
Herberl Hoover’s vote in New Jersey 16 years later.5
‘ Hoover’s vote share in New Jersey fell from 59.8%in l92B to 41.6o/o ir”r 1932.
6
We underlook two additional investigations with different samples. First, we examined the vote
in the first two shore townships where the attacks took place.6 Both Beach Haven and Spring Lake
were small, stable communities. making comparison sensible.T Figure 2 shows the vote change fbr
Wilson between l9l2 and 1916 in these two communities, and compales it with the change in their
respective counties and in New.lersey as a whole. Both townships show remarkable drops in Wilson’s
support.
11
points in Beach Haven and 9 in Spring Lake, far more than the negligible changes in the
Wilson vote in their counties and in the state. These are vote losses equal to those Herbert Hoover
suffbred statewide in New Jersey in 1932 at the height of the Great Depression. It is apparent that
something drastically reduced enthusiasm for Woodrow Wilson in these two townships.
*** Figure 2 ***
We also investigated whether Beach Haven and Spring Lake were typical of beach areas. To
answer this question, we examined the townships in Ocean County near the water. Ocean was chosen
because it has many beach communities, nearly all on a bank of land clearly separated from the
mainland. Thus there is no difficulty in separating those seven communities right on the beach from
the twelve near the beach but not on it.8 The western border of the near-beach area was set to the
.r
“{_Matarvalr Township and Matarvan Borough, where the final two shark deatlrs occurred, were excluded from
this analysis since they are not beach resort communities and thr-rs suffered no widespread economic loss from
their shark attacks or anyone elt”‘t] [n any case, the rapid growth in the number of voters in both places
between 1912 and 1916 makes comparison impossible;morethan aquarterof the l9l6 voters in Matawan
township had not been there in 1912.
7
Beach Haven cast I I 2 votes fbr president in 1 912 and 1 1 9 in 1 9 1 6. The corresponding numbers for Spring
Lake are 271 and265.
t
One beach township, Sea Side Park. apparently split into two between I912 and 1916 and jointly nearly
doubled in size; we dropped it from the analysis.
current New Jersey turnpike, which runs within a few miles of the shore in Ocean County. These two
areas had nearly identical Democratic percentages for Wilsoninlgl2 (36.3% at the beach and34.loh
in the near-beach), and thus are comparable.
In each area, we compared Wilson’s vote percentages in 1912 and 1916. If the argument of this
paper is correct, the beach voters should show the largest drop in support for Wilson, while the near-
beach citizenry should be largely unaffected. The actual vote change turns out to be a drop of 8.
2
percentage points in the beach area. compared to a tiny 0.2 percentage point gain in the near beach, an
easily statistically significant difl’erence.e Again, we flnd that disaft-ection lbr Wilson was widespread
in the beach areas whose livelihood was most directly affected by the shark attacks. far different from
the otherwise comparable areas next door. where Wilson’s vote was nearly constant.l0
In summary, then, every indication in the New Jersey vote returns fbr 1912 and 191 6 is that the
horrifying shark attacks during the summer of 1916 reduced Wilson’s vote in the fall. Retrospection
here was surely blind. If bathers insist on swimming in the ocean, governments then and now can do
nothing about shark attacks, as the subsequent attacks in New Jersey in 1960 and the regular
encottnters in Florida, California, South Africa. and Australia demonstrate (Fernicola 2001, ch. 5).
” Therervere3llbeach and2645 non-beachvoters in1912.and349 beachand2B5gnon-beachvotersin 1916.
This comparison includes Point Pleasant Beach Boror,rgh as pafi of the near-beach. In spite of its name, the
overwhelming bLrlk of its population lived in Point Pleasant, which is not on the beach. However^ this
borough’s30percentincreaseinthevotefrom 19l2to lgl6isthelargestofanybeachornear-beach
community. rnaking its two presidential years less comparable and suggesting that it shor,rld be excluded fiom
the analysis. If Point Pleasant Beach Borough is excluded, the near-beach vote change alters fiom +0.2
percentage points to -0.6, still very different from the -8.2 effect at the beach. Sirnilarly, if all beach and non-
beachcommunitieswithmorethan20%o increaseinthevotefrom l912to lgl6areexcluded,thenon-beach
vote change becomes -0.5, while the beach change is -l l.B. In shoft, these alternate versions of the sample lead
to precisely the same substantive conclusion.
“‘ Tlie sarr-re finding fiom the Ocean County township sample holds when rnedians are used irr place of means,
and when (weighted or unweighted) regressions are run with the townships as units of observation.
Shark attacks are natural disasters in the purest sense of the term. and they have no governmental
solution. Yet the voters punished any*ay. ”
Of course, it is possible that the voters did not blame the government for the attacks themselves.
but did blame it for not helping them with their economic distress. In that case, retrospection might not
be blind. No doubt voters told themselves something like that at the time. Yet in the case of the
sharks, it is not clear what the government could have done to help the local economy. The truth could
not be covered up. The vacationers could not be compelled to come to the beach, nor could the sharks
be forced to stay away. Of course, from the perspective of a century later, it is obvious that extending
welfare benefits and unemployment compensation would have helped. But these social programs did
not exist at the time, they could not have been put in place quickly, and no one would expect them to
be enacted in response to a single local disaster in any case. In sum, for the case of the
New Jersey
shark attacks, “failed disaster assistance” seems a w-eak hypothesis driven by insufficient historical
perspective.
[section on droughts and 1918 flu epidemic omitted here]
Conclusion
Our account of democratic politics strikes directly at key assumptions in two different
contemporary schools of thought. Perhaps most obviously, it questions the ability of ordinary citizens
to assess their public life critically, listen to the proposals for change coming from contenders for
public office” and then choose between the candidates in accordance with their own values. Like most
survey researchers who have talked extensively to real voters, we believe that few such citizens exist.
” On l7 December 1967 Australian prime minister Harold Holt disappeared while swimming in shark-infested
waters at Cheviot Beach near Poftsea, Victoria. His body was never found. Being devotees of democracy,
however, we disapprove of this apparent attempt by the sharks to cut outthe middleman.
The present paper is one more item of evidence. The central fact about democracies is that the voters
understand little beyond their own and their community’s pain and pleasure, and they think about
causes and effects as the popular culture advises them to think. The romantic vision of thoughtful
democratic participation in the common life is largely mythical. Democracy must be defended some
other way, if it is to be defended at all.
Our work also strikes a blow at the customary tallback position for contemporary defenders of
democracy, namely the view that the voters may know very little, but they can recognize good and bad
government performances when they see them. Hence they can choose retrospectively in a defensible
way. In most recent scholarly accounts, retrospection is a natural and rational feature of democratic
politics. In our view it is natural but not so obviously rational. Voters operating on the basis of a
valid, detailed understanding of cause and ellbct in the realm of public policy could reward good
performance while ridding themselves of leaders who are malevolent or incompetent. But real voters
oflen have only a vague, more or less primitive understanding of the connections (if any) between
incumbent politicians’ actions and their own pain or pleasure. As a result, rational retrospective voting
is harder than it seems, and blind retrospection sometimes produces consistently misguided patterns of
electoral rewards and punishments.
What we have not oft-ered here is any systematic account of the circumstances under which
citizens will find-and accept-a cultural understanding that holds public officials responsible for
changes in the public’s welfare. We know that the framing of news by the mass media may increase or
decrease the likelihood that citizens will attribute responsibility for social problems to the government
(Iyengar 1991). We know that politicians themselves may be more or less successful in “managing
blame,” exploiting competing explanations to exonerate themselves (McGraw 1991). l2 These
rr Ideological commitments may play a significant independent role in elite constrr”rctions olexplanations fbr
natural or social disasters, as with the Federalists’ and Republicans’competing explanations of the yello1v Fever
epidemic of 1793 (Pernick l9l2). Physicians “divided bitterly overthe cause of the epidemic,” with
10
alternate explanations are always present: some medieval towns blamed the plague on prostitutes,
beggars. or foreign agents (Herlihy 1997 , 65-67); some New Jersey residents in 1916 thought that
German U-boats might have induced the sharks to attack (Fernicola 2001, 166-170′); some Americans
in the grip of the Spanish Influenza pandemic two years later feared that “plague germs were inserled
into aspirin made by the German drug company Bayer” (Kolata 1999, 3).
When is one explanation accepted rather than another? Much seems to depend on plausibility
within the folk culture. Unfortunately, a general theory of political accountability explaining when and
why specific attributions or evasions of responsibility actually work is nowhere in sight. The
development of such a theory strikes us as a very high priority for students of democratic politics.
We end, then, on a discouraging note. For those who take the evidence about voter capacities
seriously, neither Rousseau nor Downs will save us. Democracies take their electoral direction liom
human beings with fewer capacities for self-government than either writer imagined. Under sufficient
pressure, those voters may lash out blindly. Such events are not bizarre historical footnotes rendered
irrelevant by modern education and hygiene. They are inevitable consequences of human cognitive
limitations-limitations which democratic government has not altered. Thus, as Sophocles taught and
as the destruction of the Weimar Republic reminds us, when the inevitable hard times appear, tragedy
may ensue.
Republicans generally attributing it to poor sanitation, climatic conditions, and the unhealthy location of
Philadelphia. while Federalists blamed disembarking refugees from Haiti (Pernick 1912.562-563). In fact,
Pernick notes, “both sides were right.”
11
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l3
Stone. Deborah A. 1989. “Causal Stories and the Formation of Policy Agendas.” Politicctl Science QtLurterll,
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Wolfers. Justin. 2002. “Are Voters Rational? Evidence from Gubernatorial E,lections.” Research Paper No.
1730. Craduate School of Business. Stanford Universitv.
14
Figure 2. Change in Woodrow Wilson’s Vote in New Jersey,1912-1916,
in Two Beach Resort Counties with Fatal Shark Attacks during July 1916
2
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In recent times, not many Americans bother to turnout at the polls. Voter turnout in Presidential elections is typically less than half of the potential voters. In mid-term elections (non-Presidential elections), turnout is even lower. Some fear these numbers reflect a serious problem for American democracy, which depends on citizen participation. Others are less concerned arguing that the numbers mean that things are going well in the country; if it was not going well more people would be motivated to have their voice heard through voting. Solving the mystery of the cause of the decline in participation and understanding its true impact on American democracy are important issues for political science to address. To help us understand these issues, it is helpful to review them in their historical context, improving our understanding of electoral rules and other factors that influence voting.
Early US Elections and Voting Rules
In America’s early days, a decade before the founding fathers arrived in Philadelphia to consider the adoption of the US Constitution, the colonies had written their own suffrage laws. These colonial laws were based on colonial precedents and English thought, which restricted voting to adult men who owned property. Both in England and the colonies, property requirements to vote were justified using two arguments: (1) men who owned property had a unique stake in society and had a personal interest in the activities of the state, especially taxation and (2) property owners had sufficient independence, free from dependence on others, giving them a voice free of control or manipulation. Such concerns also promoted colonial governments to adopt residency and citizenship requirements. Women were also barred from voting because they were considered dependent on males and because their “nature” made them unfit to engage in politics. It is unclear how many individuals actually voted during colonial times. It is most likely that voting percentages varied by locality. There probably were some communities with 70 or 80 percent enfranchisement of white male landowners. While other locales, such as coastal towns, cities and frontier settlements, probably were closer to 40 or 50 percent. The American Revolution, and its calls for greater equality among men and the expansion of freedom, fostered tensions with existing colonial electoral rules. Voting was increasingly being viewed as a right, even a natural right by some. The view was supported with republican theory and notions of the social contract that considered government legitimacy as requiring, what John Locke termed, the consent of the governed. An important expansion of the voting franchise occurred in Pennsylvania during the first few months of the Revolution. With the support of prominent reformers such as Ben Franklin and Thomas Paine, and allied with western Pennsylvania farmers who had long been under represented in the colonial government, adopted a new constitution that abolished property requirements and enfranchised all taxpaying adult males and the sons of non-taxpaying freeholders. Since Pennsylvania had a “head tax,” which required each citizen to pay tax, the new state constitution greatly expanded the franchise. A year later, Vermont went even further and adopted a state constitution that removed the franchise from any connection to property or taxpaying. Any adult male who took an oath could vote. Under the Articles of Confederation, the states had complete control over voting. But the US Constitution pierced this exclusivity by linking state suffrage rules and the right to vote in national elections by mandating that those who participated in elections for the “most numerous Branch of the state legislature” were automatically entitled to vote for members of the US House of Representatives. At the Constitutional Convention, some founding fathers advocated for national suffrage requirements, but after some debate the delegates chose to avoid additional reference to voting rights more for practical reasons than ideology. The delegates wished to avoid jeopardizing ratification as a national suffrage requirement was likely to generate opposition by state governments. Madison expressed the point in the Federalist Papers, “One uniform rule would probably have been as dissatisfactory to some of the States as it would have been difficult to the convention.” The decision to forgo a national suffrage requirement was a significant compromise, one of many major compromises. But, the compromise would have significance for the future. While the Constitution was adopted in the name of “We the People,” the states retained the power to define the “people.” In other words, citizenship in the new nation, which was controlled by the federal government, was separated from the right to vote. In the 1830s, voter registration became increasingly popular, especially among Whigs who feared ineligible transients and foreigners were supporting the Democratic Party. In fact, increasing immigration fueled greater interest in requiring voters to register. Although most supporters of registration laws argued they were necessary to prevent fraud, opponents insisted the real intent was to reduce participation by the poor. In 1985, the Fifteenth Amendment was ratified. The amendment provided that the right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude. After 1865, however, the intensity of the conflict over the right to vote increased. In the South, the abolition of slavery created a new class of potential voters – former slaves. Radical Republicans believed that freedom was illusory without political rights, including the right to vote. So during reconstruction, former slaves were enfranchised. During reconstruction, southern African-Americans were elected to office, and they supported public policies that promoted education and economic welfare for former slaves. These changes were rapid and caused Southern white leaders to fear a loss of control if their region’s African-American population remained enfranchised. Also, in 1866, the moderate majority of Republicans in Congress secured the passage of the Fourteenth Amendment to the US Constitution. The amendment created a national definition of citizenship and confirmed that former slaves were citizens. The amendment also prohibited states from passing laws that would “abridge the privileges or immunities” of citizens or deny them “the equal protection of the laws.” This time was also part of an era known as the patronage period. It was a time when political machines, led by party bosses, dominated. Many political machines were well developed in the cities and served to increase the political power of immigrants. These machines, however, were often accused of corruption and only selectively helping certain immigrant groups at the expense of others. Between 1870 and 1890, many states contracted the right to vote rolling back many of the gains that were achieved earlier. During this period, two significant contractions in the right to vote were made: (1) the disenfranchisement of Southern African-Americans; and (2) the loss of political rights for working class immigrant men in the North and West.
Does Voting Matter?
Elections serve many purposes. Elections give the government legitimacy so citizens will obey the laws (consent of the governed). Elections also solve the problem of succession without violence: Prior to the use of elections, contests for political power frequently involved physical violence or war. Elections also provide a means of accountability: Political leaders are held to account for their policies. For these reasons, elections are important. Elections can also have bad effects. For example, in the United States representatives in the House only have two-year terms that require almost constant campaigning (this is known as short planning time for an election). Also, elections may legitimize policies that are bad for the public. For example, in New Hampshire, voters elected a state representative who did not like police officers. Liphart, in Unequal Participation: Democracy’s Unresolved Dilemma, argued democratic responsiveness depends upon citizen participation. For some, a “moral obligation to vote” exists such that it is every citizen’s duty to vote. Liphart also noted that inequality of representation and influence are biased in favor of the more privileged citizens – those with higher incomes, education and wealth. Similarly, Rosenstone et al. (1993) found that in the United States the smaller the number of participants in political activity, the greater the inequality in participation. Other empirical studies have found that socioeconomic status and voting were positively linked. Tingsten (1937) found the general rule was “voting frequency rises with social standard.” The data clearly shows that the obvious way to reduce the inequality in voting is to increase voter turnout. Simply put, low voter turnout means unequal and socioeconomically biased turnout. Lipset nicely summed up the conclusion by stating that elections are “the expression of the democratic class struggle.” Verba et al. (1995) in their important work titled Voice and Equality make an important observation: While policymakers are not necessarily equally sensitive to all constituents, they are sensitive to citizen inputs. Having a great concern for either their own re-election or the maintenance of power for their political party, political leaders are more responsive to voters than to those involved in other political activities such as boycotting, protesting or letter writing. For these reasons, we can be confident that voting matters. 1
Progressive Era Reforms
The Progressive Era ( 1 890 – 1913) was a period of United States (US) history that sought to curb many of the excesses of the patronage period, including the institution of major government reforms such as civil service. Progressives wanted to clean up government, use government to advance human welfare and apply scientific management theories to government. Famously, during this era (1906), Upton Sinclair wrote The Jungle chronicling abuses in the meat packing industry, which led President Theodore Roosevelt to press Congress to pass laws regulating the meat industry. In addition, Progressives had many other successes: They attacked voting allegiances between US Senators and the railroad industry; introduced the direct primary (to avoid party conventions); obtained more equitable taxes; obtained regulation of railroad rates; secured the passage of the Sherman Anti-Trust Act; and secured the passage of the Pure Food and Drug Law. Progressives were also successful at introducing the Australian ballot, which was a secret ballot printed by the state. Previously, parties had made the ballots and there were charges of invasion of privacy and multiple voting. For those opposed to machine politics, the democratic virtues of secret balloting seemed obvious. But, the reform had the unintended consequence of becoming an obstacle to voting for many illiterate foreign-born voters in the North and uneducated African-Americans in the South. In some states, this problem was remedied by having illiterate voters assisted or by attaching party emblems next to the names of candidates. The situation in Southern states, however, deteriorated for African-Americans during this era. The year 1890 marked the beginning of efforts by southern states to disenfranchise African-American voters. Faced with recurring electoral challenges, annoying expense of buying votes and epidemics of fraud and violence, Southern Democrats chose to solidify their hold over the region by amending the state voting laws so as to exclude African-Americans without overtly violating the Fifteenth Amendment. Mississippi led the way by imposing a stricter residency requirement, a two-dollar poll tax and a literacy test that required voters to demonstrate that they understood the Constitution. Other southern states soon followed by including some combination of these requirements, and eventually Democratic primaries were restricted to only white voters. Laws were also adopted to disenfranchise men convicted of minor offenses, such as vagrancy and bigamy: The goal was to keep poor and illiterate minorities (in Texas this included Mexican Americans) from the polls. Importantly, local election officials were given a great deal of discretion in implementing the requirements, which often worked to the benefit of “gentlemen” whites but was harmful to the poor and for minorities. Sadly, these state laws worked. In Mississippi after 1890, less than 9,000 out of 147,000 voting-age African-Americans were registered to vote. In Louisiana, where more than 130,000 African-Americans were registered in 1896, as little as 1,342 were registered by 1904. Consequently, the African-American population remained disenfranchised until the 1960s, electoral participation was low and one-party rule by Southern Democrats dominated southern politics.
Vote Determinants
What determines the choice a voter will select on election day is an important question asked by many political scientists. The most widely accepted view of what drives vote choice is party identification. Campbell et al. (1960), in their famous work titled The American Voter, note that “partisan preferences show great stability between elections.” The strength and direction of party identification are of central importance in explaining political attitudes and behaviors (such as voting). Campbell et al., however, caution that party identification does not fully explain vote choice, stating “party identification could not account for all aspects of the image formed by the public of the elements of national politics; but it gives to this image a central partisan coherence.” Thus, other facts likely also influence vote choice albeit to a minor extent than party identification, and I suggest that such factors may vary for individuals depending on the nature of any given election. Niemi and Weisberg draw our attention to many other factors that can partly explain vote choice. These include the role of incumbency, media influence, the state of the economy and group attachments. Achen and Bartels (2004) present a creative argument that natural disasters, including drought, flu and shark attacks, also can influence voter choice. The 1916 New Jersey example, involving shark attacks, clearly included an economic harm component. Query whether the true driver of vote choice is the voters’ assessment that the political leaders should have done more to avoid the damage or is it the damage itself and the economic consequences that follow from the damage. Achen and Bartels suggest that a community’s pain and pleasure are key determinants regardless of how much influence the incumbent really has over the disaster. 1
Week 3
Rational and Expressive Choice
Rational Choice Theory and the Rational Voter Model (P = B > C; or Participation or voter choice (P) = perceived benefits of participation or choice (B) > perceived costs of participation or choice (C)) became popular in the 1 970s. Pursuant to this theory and model, voters decide whether to vote and which candidate to vote for on some rational basis, usually on the basis of which action gives them greater expected benefits. The model lends itself more than others to predicting what effects changes in external conditions will have on the vote. A major contribution of the model was to emphasize the role of issues in voter choice. The paradox of participation calls into question this theoretical perspective. The paradox theorizes that the rational individual will not waste resources by bearing the costs of taking part in the voting process but will instead take a free ride on the efforts of others. This is known as the free rider problem. The problem is especially acute when the individual does not perceive their vote as being decisive to the election outcome. Some have used rational choice theory to argue that those in a high socio-economic class would be less active “because they have the education and intellectual sophistication to comprehend the free-rider problem and because their high salaries raise the opportunity cost of participation” (Verba 1995, 284). The facts however suggest this hypothesis is false. In fact, strong empirical evidence demonstrates that those in a high socio-economic class are actually the most likely to be active. Other rational choice proponents, including Anthony Downs, have argued that lower information and transaction costs for the well educated imply that it is actually easier for them to participate in politics. Verba (1995) notes “[t]his approach has the virtue of fitting the facts but seems somewhat post hoc” (284). Overall, rational choice theory must be praised for its theoretical elegance. But, the theory has done a poor job of predicting political participation. More specifically, the theory has failed to predict how much political activity and who will take part. Some have argued that expressive choice theory can provide a more compelling explanation of voter behavior. According to Schuessler in A Logic of Expressive Choice (2000), individuals do not necessarily participate in collective action in order to produce outcomes but instead often do so in order to express who they are by attaching themselves to such outcomes. Because under Schuessler’s perspective the value of participation emerges not from the outcome but from the process of participation itself, the free-rider problem is no longer a concern. Participation therefore is not a form of investment but rather a form of consumption. Schuessler wrote, “Consumption benefits are inextricably tied to expression: the sports fan’s expression of team support is required for him to enjoy his participation. Similarly, participation in politics, under a consumption-benefit regime, is inextricably tied to the expression of partnership, or the expression of preference toward one of the candidates” (46) (emphasis in original). So while participation was often seen as a cost under the rational choice perspectives, expressive choice theorists see participation as a huge benefit logically driving the individual voter when making voting choices.
Mobilization
Mobilization is the process by which candidates, parties, activists and groups induce other people to participate. Two types of mobilization: (1) Directly – leaders mobilize people directly when they contact citizens personally and encourage them to take action and (2) Indirectly – leaders mobilize people indirectly when they contact citizens through mutual associates (family, friends, neighbors or colleagues). Political leaders do not try to mobilize everyone, and not all the time. For maximum effect, they target their efforts on particular people, and they time them for particular occasions. When targeting, political leaders are (1) more likely to mobilize people they already know; (2) more likely to mobilize people who are centrally positioned in social networks; (3) more likely to mobilize people whose actions are most effective at producing political outcomes; and (4) more likely to mobilize people who are likely to respond by participating. Thus, political leaders are more likely to mobilize (1) people who are employed, especially in large workplaces; (2) people who belong to associations; (3) leaders of organizations, businesses and local government; and (4) the wealthy, educated and partisan. Timing becomes critical when we consider that (1) people participate more when salient issues top the agenda; (2) people participate more when other concerns do not demand their attentions; (3) people participate more when important decisions are pending; (4) people participate when outcomes hang in the balance; and (5) people participate more when issues come before legislatures rather than before bureaucracies and courts.
Social Capital
Social capital is the features of social life – networks, norms and trust – that enable participants to act together more effectively to pursue shared objectives. Putnam (2000) in his famous work Bowling Alone advances a theory of social capital that presumes that generally speaking the more we connect with others the more we trust them. Social trust and civic engagement are strongly correlated. Significantly, education is the strongest correlate of civic engagement. However education has increased with time but yet, civic engagement has declined. Putnam (2000) examined a number of potential factors to explain the decline in social capital, social trust and civic engagement. These factors included pressure of time and money; mobilization and suburbanization; the changing role of woman; marriage and family; the rise of the welfare state; the race and civil rights revolutions; age; and television. Putnam concluded that television and generational effects are the most likely culprits to explain the decline. Life-cycle effects are differences attributable to a stage of life. Period effects affect all people who live in a given era. With generational effects individuals do not change, but society does; like life cycle effects, generational effects show up as disparities among age groups at a single point in time, but like period effects they produce real social change.
Citizen Engagement
Scholars debate whether the general decline in civic participation since the 1960s represents a disengagement from political activity, including voting. Niemi et al. (2010) note that academics have become concerned about the decline in voter turnout and other forms of political participation. Signs of disengagement appeared in the 1960s, and at a time when trust in the American government lessened. Disengagement was also observed in other nations (2010). Moreover, political knowledge also appears to be declining. The quality of news coverage has worsened. The development of many specialized cable channels and web sites gives individuals the ability to either fully pay attention to politics or avoid it entirely. It is expected that these developments will widen the knowledge gaps between those who regularly follow political news and those who merely use new technology for entertainment (Niemi et al. 2010). As noted above, Putnam concluded that the observed decline was “generational in nature” (Niemi et al. 2010, 23). For example, it was observed that the decline in participation and political knowledge is especially acute in young people (2010). Niemi et al. (2010) also acknowledge that other academics see disengagement as a myth. These scholars agree that cable channels and the internet are replacing network television as the primary news source. But, they also argue a change in values has occurred, which young people were eager to adopt. Prior to the 1960s, the World War II generation placed an emphasis on civic duty. Later generations focused instead on engagement, which emphasizes individual autonomy and non-electoral behavior such as community service and directly helping others (2010). “These changes in modes of communication, news dissemination, and values have naturally caused changes in some kinds of political behavior” (2010, 30). Niemi et al. (2010) also make an important point about the difference in calculating voter turnout. Historically, the base was calculated using the VAP (voting age population). Since the 1970s, however, many individuals in the voting age population have become ineligible to vote, including large numbers of legal or illegal non-citizens and felons or ex-felons who were denied the voting franchise by state laws. A more accurate measure appears to be the VEP (voting eligible population), which actually shows that after 1972, the decline in voting turnout was much smaller than previously observed (2010). A challenge with using the VEP, however, is that each state’s laws must be taken into account so as to capture the most accurate picture of the voting eligible population. Putnam (2000) acknowledged that it was too early to tell the true impact of the internet on social capital and citizen engagement. Even if we accepted the arguments from the academics that believe disengagement is a myth, the quality of the experience is ultimately very important to political participation. The time spent viewing cable channel news and web sites is increasingly becoming an individual activity. This contemporary experience contrasts with the pre-1960s experience of families listening to the radio together and individuals enjoying face-to-face bridge games where they would discuss the issues of the day collectively (2000). As Putnam (2000) states, “More and more of our time and money are spent on goods and services consumed individually, rather than those consumed collectively” (245). Civic engagement is subject to criticism. Some scholars have argued: (1) the lack of involvement may signal widespread satisfaction with the status quo rather than a crisis of democracy; (2) participation sparks feelings of powerlessness and frustration; (3) citizen participation may encourage unwise decisions (due to lack of expertise); and (4) highly engaged majorities may repress minorities and produce other injustices. In response, others have argued: (1) there has never been non-self-interested elites who could be trusted to advance the common good; (2) those who are active do a poor job of representing the interests of the inactive; (3) through institutional design, it may be possible to reconcile tensions between just and good government and enhanced participation; (4) civic debate is the best way to discern the truth; and (5) higher turnouts produce electorates less dominated by extremes. Regardless of one’s position with respect to civic engagement, most agree political participation in the United States is dangerously low. I do not argue that extremely high rates of participation must be achieved, but when government legitimacy is perceived as low and indifference to government and collective life too common, then increased engagement is needed. We must remember that the amount, quality and distribution of political and civic engagement are mostly the product of our political choices.
Youth Participation
Regardless of whether youth participate as much as older individuals, the nature of their participation is clearly different. Instead of traditional political activity such as working for a campaign and voting, youth are engaging in activities such as boycotting and protesting (Niemi et al. 2010). However the quality of these political activities may not yield the same benefit to the newer generations that more traditional political activity had for previous generations. Verba et al.’s work only deepens the concern. Verba et al. (1995) argue that resources such as time, money and skills are required for political participation. The origins of such resources were traced back to the involvement of individuals in major social institutions such as the family, school, workplace, voluntary associations and religious institutions (1995). “Socially structured circumstances and the constrained choices affect the stockpile of time, money and civic skills available for politics” (271). If individuals choose to engage in activities either alone or in non-traditional organizations and groups, then they may not have the same quality of access to the resources that are necessary for effective political engagement. Newer generations may prefer to engage in contemporary forms of non-electoral political activity, choosing not to vote. But, evidence exists that government rewards those who vote (Griffin and Newman 2005). Elections can be “successful in refocusing public officials’ attention to the electorate’s desires” (Bennett and Resnick 1990, 800). If decline in voting continues, even prolonged slight declines using a VEP measure, a shift in the voting model may be warranted so as to better fit this important democratic activity to the non-traditional paradigm embraced by newer generations. Compulsory voting or voting via a secure internet platform or a platform provided by another technology may eventually be an essential change (Niemi et al. 2010). Additional research on the quality of contemporary participation may help inform our electoral policy options. 1
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Week
Week 2
