Time Series Urgent

Due on Thursday 15th at 1:00pm.

Strong R-modelling skills & knowledge of time series needed to complete this hwk.

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TAR Model in R
Time Series Analysis with R
http://www.stats.uwo.ca/faculty/aim/tsar/tsar

4.204
-0.590
-9.376
5.450
-0.894
8.763
4.712
0.971
-1.953
-7.062
6.920
-3.768
-1.048
3.114
1.737
10.435
8.614
4.674
16.528
9.496
-2.336
-11.128
8.531
2.781
-3.944
-1.350
21.730
2.791
-2.321
-3.341
-1.320
10.403
-0.752
0.152
19.362
10.984
14.865
-4.578
-2.684
2.490
9.102
20.101
15.051
4.658
-9.614
-35.180
-15.647
12.830
17.477
4.879
10.910
2.484
-2.928
-17.457
0.533
4.330
-18.327
-19.138
-3.793
-9.681
0.856
17.662
-7.873
-9.246
-12.745
12.801
-8.388
1.551
-39.475
12.516
-9.409
-9.298
-26.136
2.564
-10.677
-26.881
-43.872
10.710
42.286
35.839
-10.269
-19.177
-8.480
12.503
-0.823
-23.144
4.879
44.469
13.193
7.987
-8.135
10.705
-21.556
-10.677
11.935
-2.020
14.864
-8.651
8.208
-3.990
-7.859
0.752
-9.217
4.715
-1.191
-4.812
15.616
7.652
5.466
-1.609
-4.307
8.179
2.584
5.073
13.231
6.213
7.949
6.150
6.125
1.507
2.899
-1.600
-0.324
-7.085
4.779
0.665
15.415
7.696
-4.325
8.516
6.661
5.877
14.826
-3.607
-4.338
-8.040
-1.170
0.282
9.896
-10.370
-15.598
-3.129
0.000
-2.699
-4.348
1.887
-36.248
15.092
-3.565
26.299
3.970
-0.299
2.256
9.557
-7.804
1.324
-7.765
3.359
-18.774
-0.733
6.062
-9.809
15.635
-8.224
16.733
-2.774
-2.467
5.081
-6.392
-0.995
4.815
-4.256
-21.980
5.984
6.528
1.109
4.247
0.709
-4.925
0.757
-0.378
-0.380
-0.841
-11.054
-1.308
13.441
-1.562
3.101
-1.616
-14.310
-3.312
2.250
1.861
-4.235
-8.108
-2.682
8.338
4.784
1.439
0.947
4.969
6.596
-0.427
5.326
10.863
4.668
5.396
-2.377
4.370
5.379
-8.530
1.361
5.521
-5.981
-4.914
6.880
-1.022
-4.197
3.440
-0.349
1.044
5.977
-1.659
1.658
-1.059
3.625
1.605
1.517
-1.917
9.237
-4.451
8.338
1.137
-2.807
2.032
8.269
3.177
-2.353
-1.869
3.756
5.599
-5.338
-0.997
-2.423
8.360
-4.041
-1.592
-8.361
-8.111
-5.903
-5.557
3.578
8.672
-3.909
-4.693
-2.136
-1.085
4.340
7.133
-3.674
0.407
0.000
-4.197
3.233
-3.922
-5.225
10.949
-3.175
18.590
-1.137
-7.247
3.216
0.000
8.004
-12.595
5.548
-1.621
-6.062
6.389
-2.337
-5.201
0.355
6.612
0.336
1.002
2.000
5.459
7.523
4.639
4.704
1.289
4.493
1.793
-6.881
1.368
3.733
0.730
2.340
0.000
5.564
5.381
6.231
-0.899
1.589
-3.436
-0.233
5.755
6.495
4.107
-8.719
-0.445
7.315
-2.123
-5.514
8.475
-3.871
4.502
6.494
0.199
0.198
1.376
-1.594
12.090
4.522
-5.293
0.000
0.361
2.700
2.457
-0.521
3.120
-3.473
4.492
10.825
10.322
-1.123
6.096
7.631
7.206
14.256
-4.884
17.054
-4.445
-5.850
6.190
-3.785
8.255
3.014
6.220
4.664
-4.363
6.359
-1.914
3.372
-3.593
3.358
-5.030
-6.721
13.953
8.040
-6.252
7.114
9.609
-3.193
-7.364
7.161
4.605
-3.993
-8.276
6.481
-0.419
2.079
-11.415
2.978
5.916
8.432
5.188
3.315
1.809
-6.670
-7.352
0.415
7.573
-4.917
2.211
-4.265
0.207
-1.049
0.840
1.247
4.681
1.186
4.420
3.169
2.357
12.294
-0.962
2.701
2.630
2.727
-2.574
-0.924
1.238
0.766
-3.101
2.349
12.634
8.371
-14.786
4.572
0.973
-1.401
0.842
3.706
-8.628
-2.846
-10.738
-0.512
2.703
0.000
-4.988
-7.696
-0.190
-5.942
5.557
-1.165
4.428
6.560
6.322
-1.342
6.221
-3.884
-0.333
-0.501
3.619
-11.353
-4.279
-9.151
10.935
3.152
-6.211
5.890
9.832
3.289
1.935
-7.288
3.213
5.381
6.454
-5.506
-1.114
4.229
-2.014
5.365
-1.504
6.084
0.857
-2.593
2.508
-5.749
-1.683
-0.868
4.445
0.747
6.816
-2.120
5.692
1.261
6.361
0.502
0.175
4.664
-0.843
-6.960
4.587
4.147
11.733
1.062
-3.879
4.218
-2.793
-5.141
1.049
4.792
-9.825
2.513
-10.549
-11.648
0.762
11.517
2.715
-9.465
-0.709
-1.866
-0.845
11.138
-9.821
1.757
21.766
1.150
3.176
-5.618
-1.785
-7.450
-8.844
-0.399
-0.578
10.435
-7.694
-2.151
-2.198
-0.296
2.088
10.829
4.753
-5.255
-1.205
-6.228
6.435
5.791
-3.647
-3.895
-4.401
-2.797
2.244
-1.034
-4.872
-2.496
-6.842
-2.625
5.384
-3.449
-7.087
2.639
13.005
2.092
7.985
1.908
2.725
6.728
5.568
8.565
4.100
9.267
-2.472
1.921
-12.943
14.979
-0.242
-5.430
2.542
5.256
-1.003
-2.243
6.929
4.537
1.650
-3.931
-4.273
5.407
0.337
-3.839
6.588
7.107
-4.025
-4.045
-3.616
-8.490
0.421
-3.028
8.955
-5.951
6.981
3.701
-2.871
-0.198
-5.087
-4.877
-4.284
-6.178
-5.543
2.861
-13.571
-12.691
-17.956
20.212
-2.985
-9.457
14.609
14.215
4.161
0.000
-1.368
15.581
-10.774
-2.139
-4.082
8.961
0.260
-3.640
19.399
-4.801
-0.894
2.353
-5.497
12.285
-4.704
-2.791
2.929
-1.396
-5.289
10.224
-5.070
-4.596
-1.849
9.230
0.694
5.032
-3.834
-1.856
-2.995
-2.219
1.091
-0.500
-8.633
-2.210
5.277
11.390
1.189
-3.316
6.004
1.159
-1.345
-10.720
0.577
0.000
2.359
-3.372
4.256
2.317
1.415
1.765
3.440
2.858
-3.438
-4.793
-3.256
9.309
8.289
-7.649
-4.321
-1.308
5.628
3.961
8.822
-3.160
-2.086
2.810
13.382
0.202
0.000
8.599
1.487
-2.073
0.190
-4.790
-1.424
-8.776
-0.359
-1.146
10.697
-3.712
8.555
0.598
2.047
1.176
-3.572
4.116
3.285
13.496
0.464
13.874
8.347
2.536
8.701
4.718
-2.472
6.343
-7.902
7.072
-9.781
2.475
4.026
-1.914
10.754
2.592
-7.525
-4.466
6.288
1.133
-4.373
-0.235
0.000
7.564
-0.664
3.091
-2.777
2.232
12.048
0.469
-7.336
0.000
3.408
2.041
3.571
-4.996
-4.957
0.217
13.000
11.101
-2.611
9.682
1.282
-0.479
2.059
2.269
-10.399
7.423
-8.172
5.909
8.482
4.280
15.332
3.069
2.039
-1.320
0.482
5.071
8.587
5.340
-1.078
-26.094
-11.154
4.837
2.241
0.828
-11.088
0.000
3.946
5.162
-2.597
-5.716
7.971
0.574
3.103
0.355
7.790
-5.579
-1.853
9.377
11.123
-4.857
12.502
-1.507
-1.249
-2.011
11.301
4.679
-3.550
-0.048
3.969
-0.390
8.022
0.543
3.372
-14.431
-12.035
-4.696
5.153
5.568
10.928
6.810
2.362
1.603
9.447
-4.298
-1.019
2.194
-6.896
-0.542
-6.357
17.392
-1.647
4.387
-3.002
1.148
-0.327
2.489
-1.621
-3.323
6.336
-1.936
8.129
3.401
0.728
-2.349
6.478
1.669
2.318
3.839
2.832
-0.254
-1.792
1.166
1.408
7.082
2.704
-2.229
-4.519
-4.867
4.365
-5.718
7.736
-1.249
-2.576
1.546
-6.062
11.119
0.975
6.120
-0.623
3.637
3.509
-2.117
4.551
-0.212
8.597
-0.787
5.946
7.648
6.389
-1.642
3.686
-0.806
6.878
4.721
-4.769
1.058
9.556
6.127
7.226
-4.529
4.572
-0.606
-3.064
11.189
8.419
7.381
7.960
-11.411
8.807
-5.183
13.377
-0.271
5.470
0.322
10.650
-1.167
-2.151
8.614
-1.260
-11.151
-0.172
9.509
3.233
12.443
2.780
-4.447
10.101
-4.862
-3.562
10.549
-3.283
2.994
5.710
13.353
-4.048
17.596

3.4
3.8
4
3.9
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.8
4
4.3
4.7
5
5.3
6.1
6.2
6.7
6.8
6.6
7.9
6.4
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
5.8
5.5
5.4
5
4.5
4.4
4.2
4.2
4.3
3.7
3.4
3.4
3.1
3
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.3
3.5
3.5
3.1
3.2
3.1
2.9
2.9
3
3
3.2
3.4
3.1
3
2.8
2.7
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.5
4.5
4.9
5.2
5.7
5.9
5.9
5.6
5.8
6
6.1
5.7
5.3
5
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.3
4.2
4
4.2
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.2
4
3.9
4.2
4
4.3
4.3
4.4
4.1
3.9
3.9
4.3
4.2
4.2
3.9
3.7
3.9
4.1
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.4
4.5
5.1
5.2
5.8
6.4
6.7
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.5
7.4
7.1
6.7
6.2
6.2
6
5.9
5.6
5.2
5.1
5
5.1
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.8
5.3
5.2
4.8
5.4
5.2
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.5
6.1
6.1
6.6
6.6
6.9
6.9
7
7.1
6.9
7
6.6
6.7
6.5
6.1
6
5.8
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.7
5.5
5.7
5.9
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.6
5.6
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.2
4.9
5
5.1
5.1
4.8
5
4.9
5.1
4.7
4.8
4.6
4.6
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4
4
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.8
4
3.9
3.8
3.7
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.7
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.9
4.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
4.9
5
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.9
6.1
5.9
5.9
6
5.9
5.9
5.9
6
6.1
6
5.8
6
6
5.8
5.7
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.3
5.2
4.9
5
4.9
5
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.6
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.1
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.9
6
6.6
7.2
8.1
8.1
8.6
8.8
9
8.8
8.6
8.4
8.4
8.4
8.3
8.2
7.9
7.7
7.6
7.7
7.4
7.6
7.8
7.8
7.6
7.7
7.8
7.8
7.5
7.6
7.4
7.2
7
7.2
6.9
7
6.8
6.8
6.8
6.4
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.1
6
5.9
6.2
5.9
6
5.8
5.9
6
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.6
5.7
5.7
6
5.9
6
5.9
6
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.9
7.5
7.6
7.8
7.7
7.5
7.5
7.5
7.2
7.5
7.4
7.4
7.2
7.5
7.5
7.2
7.4
7.6
7.9
8.3
8.5
8.6
8.9
9
9.3
9.4
9.6
9.8
9.8
10.1
10.4
10.8
10.8
10.4
10.4
10.3
10.2
10.1
10.1
9.4
9.5
9.2
8.8
8.5
8.3
8
7.8
7.8
7.7
7.4
7.2
7.5
7.5
7.3
7.4
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.2
7.3
7.2
7.4
7.4
7.1
7.1
7.1
7
7
6.7
7.2
7.2
7.1
7.2
7.2
7
6.9
7
7
6.9
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.1
6
5.9
6
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.2
5
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.3
5.3
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.2
5.5
5.7
5.9
5.9
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.6
6.8
6.7
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.9
6.9
7
7
7.3
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.4
7.6
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.6
7.3
7.4
7.4
7.3
7.1
7
7.1
7.1
7
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.8
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.1
6.1
6.1
6
5.9
5.8
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.4
5.4
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.5
5.1
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9
5
4.9
4.8
4.9
4.7
4.6
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.4
4.3
4.4
4.2
4.3
4.2
4.3
4.3
4.2
4.2
4.1
4.1
4
4
4.1
4
3.8
4
4
4
4.1
3.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
4.2
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.3
4.5
4.6
4.9
5
5.3
5.5
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
5.8
5.8
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.7
5.9
6
5.8
5.9
5.9
6
6.1
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.1
6
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.8
5.6
5.6
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.1
5
5
4.9
5
5
5
4.9
4.7
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.5
4.4
4.5
4.4
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.7
4.7
4.7
5
5
4.8
5.1
5
5.4
5.5
5.8
6.1
6.2
6.6
6.9
7.4
7.7
8.2
8.6
8.9
9.4
9.5
9.4
9.7
9.8
10.1
10
10
9.7
9.7
9.7
9.9
9.7
9.5
9.5
9.6
9.6
9.6

1.046
1.038
0.925
0.755
1.156
1.163
0.933
1.127
1.053
1.191
0.963
0.961
0.729
0.898
0.925
0.802
0.776
0.865
0.87
0.906
0.818
0.76
0.709
0.642
0.797
0.585
0.782
0.587
0.77
0.512
0.702
0.795
1.088
1.074
1.06
1
1.091
1.209
1.077
0.481
0.974
1.219
1.213
1.05
1.05
0.92
1.32
1.033
1.309
0.979
1.15
0.908
1.113
0.962
1.283
1.094
1.08
0.956
1.104
0.984
1.028
1.159
1.223
0.933
1.167
1.114
0.923
1.03
1.126
0.87
0.824
1.277
1.182
1.365
1.269
1.23
1.446
1.602
1.328
1.294
1.208
1.203
1.51
1.191
1.069
0.927
0.828
0.98
1.187
1.307
1.003
1.128
1.198
1.148
1.19
1.024
1.272
1.283
1.225
1.269
1.14
0.963
0.713
0.817
1.401
1.146
0.826
0.812
0.866
0.997
1.091
1.157
1.077
0.951
1.061
0.899
0.817
0.922
0.579
0.863
0.697
0.814
0.835
0.938
1.201
1.261
0.71
0.6
0.576
0.606
0.579
0.765
0.823
0.856
1.041
0.888
0.674
0.73
0.81
0.73
0.804
0.772
0.741
0.955
0.694
0.829
0.83
0.89
0.884
0.923
0.865
1.026
1.043
0.537
0.693
0.904
0.902
0.779
0.759
0.707
0.804
0.763
0.517
0.704
0.584
0.372
0.607
0.81
0.733
0.618
0.65
0.603
0.702
0.9
0.883
0.727
0.812
0.673
0.724
0.958
0.954
0.845
0.638
0.987
0.987
1.098
1.287
1.179
1.193
1.246
1.084
1.141
1.245
1.174
1.054
0.924
1.118
1.149
1.108
1.305
1.314
1.279
1.106
1.145
0.977
1.427
1.13
1.152
1.247
1.344
1.22
1.198
1.253
0.919
1.057
1.231
1.286
1.354
1.277
1.553
1.123
1.327
0.525
0.966
0.952
0.778
0.765
1.328
0.753
1.243
0.943
1.257
1.122
1.265
1.367
1.247
1.808
2.02
1.383
1.16
1.017
0.976
0.771
0.662
0.946
1.148
0.948
1.026
1.248
0.949

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