Consider the following time series data.

Problem 6-05

Consider the following time series data.

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  1. Choose the correct time series plot.(i)(ii)(iii)(iv)What type of pattern exists in the data?
  2. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.WeekTime SeriesValueForecast118213316411fill in the blank 3517fill in the blank 4614fill in the blank 5MSE: fill in the blank 6The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7
  3. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.WeekTime SeriesValueForecast118213fill in the blank 8316fill in the blank 9411fill in the blank 10517fill in the blank 11614fill in the blank 12MSE: fill in the blank 13The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14
  4. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?Explain.The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.
  5. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.

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