# Problem 6-05 Consider the following time series data. Choose the correct time series plot. (i)(ii)(iii)(iv) What type of pattern exists in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for

What type of pattern exists in the data?

Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places

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Consider the following time series data.
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Week tsvalue forcast

1 18

2 13

3 16

4 11 ?

5 17 ?

6 14 ?

MSE?

The forecast for wek 7 ?

Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places

Week Time SeriesValue Forecast

1 18

2 13 ?

3 16 ?

4 11 ?

5 17 ?

6 14 ?

MSE?

Forecast week 7?

Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

Explain.

The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.

Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.

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